Exhibit 99.2
Exhibit 99.2
Final Transcript
Conference Call Transcript
PFCB Q1 2011 PF Changs China Bistro Inc Earnings Conference Call
Event Date/Time: Apr 27, 2011 / 05:00PM GMT
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
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Mark Mumford
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P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO |
Robert Bert Vivian
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P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO |
Rick Federico
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P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO |
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
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Destin Tompkins
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Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. Analyst |
Will Salba
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Analyst |
Jeff Omohundro
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Wells Fargo Securities Analyst |
Andy Barish
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Jefferies & Co. Analyst |
John Glass
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Morgan Stanley Analyst |
Matthew DiFrisco
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Oppenheimer & Co. Analyst |
Nicole Miller Regan
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Piper Jaffray & Co. Analyst |
Brad Ludington
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KeyBanc Capital Markets Analyst |
Sharon Zackfia
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William Blair & Company Analyst |
Keith Siegner
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Credit Suisse Analyst |
John Ivankoe
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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst |
Bart Glenn
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D.A. Davidson & Co. Analyst |
Mitchell Speiser
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Buckingham Research Analyst |
Stephen Anderson
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Miller Tabak Analyst |
Peter Saleh
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Telsey Advisory Group Analyst |
Rob Wilson
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Tiburon Research Analyst |
Jon Comp
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Robert W. Baird & Co. Analyst |
Paul Westra
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Cowen and Company Analyst |
Sofia Siddiqi
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Barclays Capital Analyst |
PRESENTATION
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the PF Changs China Bistro first-quarter 2011 earnings release
conference call. Your lines have been placed on listen-only until the question-and-answer session
of the conference. (Operator Instructions) Todays call is being recorded. If you have any
objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mark
Mumford, CFO. Thank you, you may begin.
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Thank you. Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us today for PF Changs first-quarter 2011
earnings call. Joining me today, our co-CEOs, Rick Federico, who has called in remotely, and Bert
Vivian. A number of our comments today will be forward-looking in nature and include risks and
uncertainties. We recommend that all investors thoroughly review our quarterly and annual filings
with the SEC before taking a financial position in our Company. We plan to file our Form 10-Q later
today.
The first-quarter fell short of our expectations with EPS of $0.46. This was about $0.05 below our
internal forecast, primarily due to disruptions at Pei Wei stemming from the well publicized issue
at some of our Arizona restaurants. Absent this issue, we ended up fairly close to where we
thought, despite softening sales late in the quarter.
While our January and February results were in line, March surprised us a bit as our sales began to
soften. This trend has continued, and in fact, has gotten a little worse in April at both concepts.
Were not sure why we are seeing this softness, and we dont yet know if it is a temporary speed
bump or something that will continue longer term.
As we look at the year in total, we still feel comfortable with the full-year range of $2.15 to
$2.20 that we gave you back in February. While recent sales do have us concerned, it is still early
in the year, and we have a number of sales initiatives underway to help improve things going
forward. However, if current trends continue, and the sales softness persists, it may impact our
ability to meet our guidance.
In addition to general top line softness in March, we were also impacted by temporary closures at
eight Arizona Pei Wei locations in connection with an investigation conducted by local authorities.
This resulted in 29 lost sales weeks during March which equates to about $1.1 million in lost
revenues. Excluding Arizona March sales, Pei Wei comps were up 0.5% for March and up 0.8% for the
first-quarter. All of the impacted stores are now open and operating.
We have always complied with the law with regards to our hiring practices and procedures. While no
system is perfect, we do have strong hiring processes and tools in place. Weve used electronic I-9
system-wide for several years and have proactively rolled out e-Verify on a voluntary basis. This
gives us better assurances that the people we hire can be productive, long-term members of our
team. In fact, all Bistro restaurants now use e-Verify for all new hires, and the Pei Wei rollout
will be complete this summer, several months ahead of our original plan.
Turning to margins at the Bistro, restaurant cash operating margins expanded to 18.2%. That was up
140 basis points, but slightly below our expectations. As expected, cost of sales was lower due to
the lapping of last years initial Happy Hour rollout and favorable product mix. We also had the
benefit of last Mays price increase to help offset higher prices throughout most of our
commodities basket. We continue to expect commodities inflation of 3% to 4% for the year. The
planned price increase this May should help offset incremental pressures that we expect in the back
half of the year.
On the labor line, as expected, we benefited from 130 basis points of improvement in hourly labor
as we lapped last years Happy Hour rollout. That improvement was offset by the increase in
management incentive compensation. Due to the structure of the incentive program, we paid out more
this year to recognize the year-over-year operating improvement in both revenue and profitability.
This quarter was the easiest comparison, and we expect the level of Bistro management incentives to
moderate for the remainder of year.
At Pei Wei, restaurant cash operating margins declined to 14.3%, mostly due to the impact of lost
revenues from closed Arizona stores as well as additional hiring and training costs to reopen them.
In addition, we experienced higher cost of sales than last year which includes the unfavorable
margin impact shifting from a Chicken LTL last year to a Beef LTL this year. Beef typically carries
a lower margin than chicken.
Consolidated G&A was higher than last year primarily due to higher Bistro multi-unit management
incentives and increased legal expenses. Offsetting those increases was lower share-based
compensation expense. As a reminder, a large portion of this years share-based compensation is
dependent on stock performance against the Russell 2000 Index.
We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $73 million, roughly consistent with where we were at
year-end. Cash flow from operations was $21 million, and we spent a total of $7 million in CapEx,
resulting in free cash flow of $15 million for the quarter. We used $6 million to repurchase
133,000 shares under our current buyback program. In addition, we paid almost $7 million in cash
dividends. We continue to expect to return approximately $80 million back to the shareholders in
2011, including just over $20 million in the form of cash dividends and about $60 million through
share repurchases.
Looking at development, while we continue to expect 25 to 30 new Pei Wei openings over the next two
years, we have updated our 2011 new unit development plans based on the timing of various projects
and now expect to open five Pei Wei restaurants and two new Bistro restaurants this year. We
continue to add internal resources, expand our external broker networks, and evaluate changes to
the Pei Wei store design, to support future Pei Wei development.
We also continue to expand our Bistro international presence. Our partners opened three new
restaurants during the first-quarter; two in Mexico City and one in Kuwait. We recently signed a
new licensing agreement with Interaction Asian Restaurants to develop 12 PF Changs restaurants
throughout Eastern Canada over the next 10 years. And, we expect to open our first two Pei Wei
takeaway locations late this year in John Wayne-Orange County Airport and Minneapolis-St. Paul
airport. These are through a licensing agreement with [HMS Host]. With that, lets open the call up
for questions.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Andrea, wed like to open the call for questions if we can, please.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Destin Tompkins. Your line is open.
Destin Tompkins Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. Analyst
Thank you. Mark, Id love to get a little bit more color on your comfort with maintaining guidance
at the current level despite being a little bit softer in the first quarter. As well as, it sounds
like, April, maybe is continuing the trend in March. Could you give us a little bit more
information on what gives you confidence?
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
We still have a forecast that puts us within that range. We also got nicked a little bit in Q1
primarily due to the Pei Wei issue that we talked about. Its really going to come down to sales,
though. As I mentioned in our opening remarks, and as you just pointed out, April was a little bit
softer for us compared to where we were coming out of the first quarter. When we look back over the
last seven weeks or so, sales have been a little bit hard to predict. We range from up 1.5% to down
6% and weve had a few weeks that were flat.
This type of movement thats kind of unusual for a 200-unit system. Theres been a lot of noise
over the past few weeks with Easter and Spring Break shifts and so forth. Nonetheless, the Bistro
is running down about 3%. Were not sure why, and its not in any particular geography. We are also
seeing some softness in Pei Wei. You back out the Easter week, and Pei Wei is down about the same.
Theyre still dealing with the Phoenix issue. They are still recovering. We just got orr last store
open a few weeks ago.
So, right now when we look at our forecast, were not sure if the revenue that we are seeing is a
temporary blip, or something that is more persistent. It does give us a little bit of a dilemma
regarding our revenue guidance and our EPS guidance going forward. Its important to point out if
we look at our first two months of the period, we are on target. March, surprised us. And it
appears were probably going to be a little bit soft in April as well. But, at this point, weve
got a few weeks of data. So it is difficult to extrapolate that and put it against our revenue
forecast and EPS forecast going forward. Were not ready to do that yet. So at the end of the day
to hit our EPS forecast, we think weve got a good control over the costs that are associated in
our forecast. Its going to come down to revenue and our ability to hit that revenue number.
Destin Tompkins Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. Analyst
A couple follow-ups to that. One being, I think you mentioned several sales initiatives that you
have in place. Id love to hear what you could potentially roll out to somewhat offset the
weakness. And then, as you look at the recent weakness and think about this menu pricing that you
are looking at, does the recent weakness affect at all your thoughts about taking that additional
pricing? Do you feel like theres any relationship between the pricing and traffic trends that
youre seeing right now?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
I will take the price, and then I will leave Rick to talk about some of the initiatives. Ill
handle the price first. Destin, we are always very cautious and thoughtful when it comes to price
and the impact that it has on the consumer. It always have some type of impact. The planned price
increase that we have in May, its less than we had last year. Its about 1.5%. And thats going to
be taken in conjunction with the new menu design. So, were hopeful that that is going to be
positive. Its going to highlight some of the freshness of our product and some of our key
offerings such as Dinner for Two. And, so, frankly we dont believe that this small of a price
increase, especially balanced with the other positives that we have going on the menu change, is
going to negatively impact our traffic patterns.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Hey, Destin, this is Rick, and I am calling in from California. So can you hear me?
Destin Tompkins Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. Analyst
Yes.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Good. Thanks. A couple things. One of the things that I think is important to understand is that
the initiatives that are in both of our brands are part of a continuum of thought around how do we
continue to build traffic over a long period of time, rather than a short-term response to a four-
or five-week sales period where we are seeing a little bit of pressure. So, if you back up a little
bit, what youve seen us do at the Bistro is we brought Lane Cardwell in as the President for the
brand. And to a large degree, what that is designed to do is to continue to allow us to put our
best talent in their best places or to put aces in other places. So Rick Tasman, our COO, can
focus more intensely on the day-to-day operations while we have a very thoughtful and experienced
strategic leader sitting on top of the brand.
What you will see and some of this are things that are in works but not necessarily rolled out
across the system. But one of the first things that Lane has been focused on is actually the menu.
And, you will see in the middle part of May, along with our price increase, you will see a format
change which is designed to make the menu a little bit easier to navigate . We will reduce the size
of the menu, which will allow our operations teams to focus more intently on the products that are
there, because diversity isnt necessarily our friend. Youll see that there is a what we have
come to understand or appreciate is that outside of lettuce wraps, the second most recognized
element of our brand is the Changs for Two or the ability to share meals.
So Lane and the team have been working on opportunities to enhance Changs for Two. Because what it
does is although its priced at $39.95 it does drive a higher than normal check in terms of total
primarily because the guest is comfortable trading up to and adding on to that. I think the next
thing that is, I think, important for the brand is to differentiate the various day parts by which
we can build traffic. So if you look at it in three buckets youve got the lunch component.
Youve got the Happy Hour sort of that mid-day. And then youve got the dinner component. The
team is working very aggressively on the lunch side of the equation. That will be the next what
I would call bigger initiative that will be coming into the brand.
If you think about our menu, and Lane says it best we serve dinner at lunch. Its a dinner
service strategy/ Its a dinner menu portion. Its a dinner price point, and everything has been
predicated on a single menu format. So, we are developing what we would call a lunch for lunch
option. Focusing on the development of some very unique products that are very conducive to lunch.
Maintaining the highest product quality or consistent product quality as to what you find on
our dinner menu. And then really focusing on speed and the value part of the equation.
We do have in tests, which is an offshoot of our Happy Hour menu, we have a couple of stores that
are operating a separate Dim Sum lunch. And it is a very aggressive price point. Its somewhere in
the $7 to $8 range. But, its a little bit more inclusive, and its fun. And its interactive. Its
only been in place a couple of weeks, but what youre going to see is some more aggressive work in
trying to build our lunch traffic. And then the dinner component, I think, will follow after that,
and we are very early in the development of some ideas on how to drive some additional dinner
Destin Tompkins Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc. Analyst
Thank you. Thats helpful.
Operator
Your next question comes from Will [Salba]. Your line is open.
Will Salba Analyst
Thank you. Just wondering if you could elaborate on the softness youre currently seeing out there?
And is that taking place fairly equally across both concepts? And is it more geographically focused
at all?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
You kind of broke up. Can you repeat the question for us, please?
Will Salba Analyst
Yes, sure. Im wondering if you could elaborate on the softness youre seeing out there currently?
And if that is taking place at both concepts fairly equally, and if its geographically focused
all?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Yes. The softness that we saw in March was fairly broad-based. We really dont have a geography
that we can point to and say it was East Coast, West Coast. It was pretty much across the board.
For the quarter, though, there were some highlights for us. California, Arizona, Nevada were all
positive, and those were states that historically have been struggling. They represent about 25% of
our store base. So, its good to see them go back into positive territory.
On the flip side for the quarter, its not just March for the quarter. We saw Texas and Florida,
which had been strong for us go negative, and I am speaking to the Bistro right now. On the Pei Wei
side, California and Florida were positive. Once again, were glad to see California come back into
the positive. I think if you were going to point to one thing from a geography standpoint on the
Pei Wei side, we saw some weakness in Texas, both Dallas and Houston during the quarter.
Will Salba Analyst
Okay. And also, I know you have been traditionally pretty conservative when talking about your
balance sheet. But when I look at the magnitude of the cash flows that the business spits off, and
then with the opportunity for those to grow pretty meaningfully going forward and then compare that
to where your stock is trading now? Im wondering if there is an opportunity here to become more
aggressive than the $60 million you put out there on the share repurchases? And if that would be
something that would be on the table here?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
We have authorization for the Board for the $60 million, and we have that were repurchasing it
through a 10b5-1. And were doing it pretty systematic about $6 million a month right now.
Outside of that, we really dont have anything to share.
Will Salba Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jeff Omohundro. Your line is open.
Jeff Omohundro Wells Fargo Securities Analyst
Thanks. Just a question on the Happy Hour. Now that it has been out for a year, and it has been
evolved a bit with items like the Street Tacos. Im just curious how youre viewing further
evolution of that day part? And have you achieved the mix targets that you wanted to achieve there?
And should we expect more?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Let me take the first part, and maybe Mark can take the second. We are continuing to think about
additional menu items. If you followed the evolution of Happy Hour, it started out as simply
discounting some of our more popular items during that 3.00 to 6.00
period of time along with some drink specials. That evolved more to what internally we refer to as
the Triple Happiness which is drinks, Dim Sum, and Street [Fare]. We developed it for that period
of the day. Items that were specifically designed that you couldnt get at other parts of the day,
and thats been very successful for us. Weve got good traction and good reception from the
consumer in terms of those products and those particular price points. So we do think there is an
opportunity to continue to evolve and bring innovative product to that particular day part.
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
And, I think the initiatives that Rick just talked about are being reflected in the penetration
that we are seeing of our guests that are enjoying the Happy Hour occasion. We have continued to
see that penetration of our mix increase through Q1 here. Same trends that we saw last year.
Jeff Omohundro Wells Fargo Securities Analyst
And, one other question was, as the Arizona stores have reopened? How have they reopened? Have they
recaptured sales volumes quickly? Or what has that performance been like?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
From a sales volume perspective, its difficult to say because the stores that were closed are
behaving pretty similar to the other stores that werent closed. So we are seeing some general
softness here in April in Arizona. As far as the efficiency of those stores, you should think about
a little bit of pressure that well see here in Q1. Theyll behave similar to a new store. So you
see some pressure on the labor line, a little bit in cost of sales. Most of that here in Q2 as it
smooths out in the back half of the year.
Jeff Omohundro Wells Fargo Securities Analyst
Thanks.
Operator
Your next question comes from Andy Barish. Your line is open.
Andy Barish Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Hello. Just two clarifications. One on the food cost line given the pricing and the 3% to 4%
inflation, do you expect food costs overall to be up as you move forward, year-over-year, now that
youve gotten past that easy comparison? And then, just on the Pei Wei side of things. The labor
numbers were actually flattish, year-over-year? Was the Arizona issues some of the costs? I imagine
impacted the labor line? Or is it spread through the income statement?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Let me handle the cost of sales at the Bistro first. We did see 120 basis points of favorability.
How you should think of going forward, its probably going to be fairly similar. It may be up just
slightly from what we saw here in Q1. Remember, last year we didnt have any price. This quarter,
we had the price that we took last year in May so that was helping us out some. We did lap the
Happy Hour rollout. Remember those initial menu items we were just discounting off the existing
menu. The new product this year is engineered for Happy Hour so it carries a little bit heavier
margin for us.
We also benefited from favorable wok oil. Last year, wok oil started up high, and it moved low
during the year. This year, wok oil is starting off lower, and its going to move higher. So we
will see some favorability here in Q1, but it is going to add a little bit of pressure for us in
the back half of the year. But were taking price in May which should mitigate those incremental
cost pressures. We still think that the overall market basket is still in that 3% to 4% range.
Looking at Pei Wei, youre right. Pei Wei did come in flat on labor despite the issues that they
had in Arizona. If you back out those Arizona issues, we probably would have seen labor favorable
40 basis points or so. Thats primarily due to operational efficiencies. They also had a little bit
lower management incentives, obviously due to the performance. But the majority of it was
operational efficiencies.
Andy Barish Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from John Glass. Your line is open.
John Glass Morgan Stanley Analyst
Thanks very much. Id like to start with your reduction in the development schedule. I guess now
this is the third, maybe fourth quarter, youve reduced your expectations for this year. What is it
that keeps leading you to reduce the schedule? Particularly in the context of an industry that
seems to be accelerating in and opening successfully this year and next. Did you start the year
with a smaller pipeline than you had historically so as they drop out theres nothing to fill it
in? Or are you somehow expressing greater conservatism around the brands given the current trends?
What is going on?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Let me take that. This is Rick. I think a couple of things. One is, I think you are correct in
saying that the pipeline is not as full as it might be given where we are today. And I think thats
more of a function of having stopped a couple of years ago, and now its starting to refill that
pipeline. So, when we went into this year, we had somewhere in the five to seven deals that were
already completed. We have had a couple of those that at final site approval have flamed out for a
variety of reasons, which candidly had we gone forward, would have not the deals would not have
been good ones for the Company. So, as we build that pipeline, our ability to find great real
estate for both brands is going to be a very important component of the activity that is going on.
To get there, what we have done is re-crafted the development team, particularly around the Pei Wei
business, because weve got weve added a senior person to head real estate for the entire
brand. Weve re-crafted and re-territoried the broker network. Weve started to see that pipeline
starting to fill up a little bit. In fact, this past Monday, at Phase 1 of some Pei Wei deals, we
actually saw four deals that got through the Phase 1 portion to go on to what would be a
preliminary site approval phase. So, I think we are starting to see the results that we would
anticipate by adding the manpower and reorganizing that portion of our team.
John Glass Morgan Stanley Analyst
Okay. And then, I think everyone on the line is probably a little bewildered about the sales
slowdown because of the commentary so many peers have said about recent trends being at least
stable, and in some cases, even better in April. And the [Naptrack] numbers I guess would at least
support it through March as well. So does it cause you to be a little more introspective about
something youre doing thats different than the competitors? And maybe its that you dont want to
be as aggressive at lunch, maybe thats true. Or is there what can you say about your own
operations vis-a-vis the competitors that maybe putting you at a disadvantage because traffic does
seem to be coming back in this industry right now.
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Rick, you want to take that?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Yes, let me give that a shot. I think one of the things that, I think, important for us is to
continue to compare ourselves to ourselves. We are very conscious of the fact that many of our
competitors are actually faring a little bit better than we might be through this period of time.
Its an unusual position, I think, for us to be in. And, I think for us to be able to effectively
navigate through this, we have to be very sensitive to where the consumer is and continue to
evaluate whether or not what were delivering is where the customer is moving. And so, the basic
premise for navigating through this for the Company is two things.
One is that we want to create incremental and additional value for every guest that comes to our
restaurant without discounting. We dont want to be the place that takes our most popular items and
starts offering them at a deep discount. But rather we want to develop menu items and service
strategies and ambient natures that enhance the value for every guest for every dollar that they
are going to spend. And thats going to be across both brands. The second component, I think,
through this period of time will be for us to continue to be innovative. The guest has given us
more creative license that we have given ourselves over the years, and what you are starting to see
in both of the brands is more flexibility from a culinary development . Youll also see more
flexibility from a design development. But, those are processes that are on a continuum that are
going to take a little bit of time in order to get tested and
John Glass Morgan Stanley Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Matthew DiFrisco. Your line is open.
Matthew DiFrisco Oppenheimer & Co. Analyst
Thank you. Just a quick question. In conference calls past, I think you mentioned your brands
positioning for business occasions and how you were able to gauge that. There was a benefit there
and catching that recovery coming back. Has that recovery continued? Can you still look at those
and put the bucket of business occasions? Has the momentum continued both at lunch and dinner for
that business? Or is that maybe stalled out, and maybe now were just seeing more of the consumer,
comparable sales contribution? Thank you.
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Youre right, Matt. It has continued for us. In fact, the majority of our comp improvement that we
saw here in Q1 was due to the benefit that we saw from the higher dollar tickets. From a day part
perspective, the majority of our day parts were positive for Q1. Weekday dinner was the strongest
day part overall. Lunch was also during the week was positive. That may be a sign of the
continued recovery that we saw from the business spin that we talked about that began in the back
half of last year. Both weekday and weekend were both positive for us. A little bit stronger comps
during the week then on the weekend.
Matthew DiFrisco Oppenheimer & Co. Analyst
Would that weekend softness then or lagging of the weekday would that indicate perhaps that
some of the maybe higher end malls? Maybe you are exposed to some of the traffic declines that
they have been seeing? Or have you looked at that as far as bifurcating out your higher end mall
locations versus the stand-alone destination stores more?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
No, we havent. The comp differential isnt that great. Some quarters, weekend will do better. Some
quarters the weekdays can do better. This one just happened that the weekday was a little bit
stronger for us. So I dont think theres really anything to read too much into that.
Matthew DiFrisco Oppenheimer & Co. Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Nicole Miller. Your line is open.
Nicole Miller Regan Piper Jaffray & Co. Analyst
Thanks. Good afternoon. The business seems to be a little bit more volatile, and my question is if
you look back over the past couple of years and also just the recent quarter, what could be or
what could have been or what may be the benefit of running these two concepts totally
separately?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Nicole, Im not so sure I understand the question. You mean like separating the two brands
completely?
Nicole Miller Regan Piper Jaffray & Co. Analyst
Yes, if there were two different companies, how would things be less volatile and what could you
have benefited from or learned? How would you do it different?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Im not so sure that I would do it differently. Independently or internally, the brands are run as
unique and separate businesses for the most part. So, anything that touches the consumer, touches
the product, or touches our employees, our dedicated resources funneled up under a brand president
or brand leader. What we do share are what would be more generic services like accounting, human
resource practices, and those types of things. So, the brands, although are under the PFCB
umbrella, they do operate as unique and individual brands.
Nicole Miller Regan Piper Jaffray & Co. Analyst
Just coming at it from the perspective on days like today, and I know this is a little bit more
stock-driven in terms of a question. But are some of the parts bigger than the whole right now? And
how do you see the value of each brand? And where are you going to be in the next couple of years?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Im going to leave that one to Bert.
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Can you repeat that last part of the question?
Nicole Miller Regan Piper Jaffray & Co. Analyst
Just looking at, I know it is more of a stock price question. But looking at how the stocks
reaction today, is the sum bigger than the whole here? The two pieces. Thats what Im asking
should these brands be separate? Or should they be together? Because things have been more volatile
lately.
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
I kind of refer back to what Rick said. I dont know that we would do anything different. We think
we have two great brands. We were a little bit soft in March. A little bit soft in April. But I
think its pretty dramatic to jump to that conclusion. So, I think we like the way that we are
currently structured.
Nicole Miller Regan Piper Jaffray & Co. Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Brad Ludington. Your line is open.
Brad Ludington KeyBanc Capital Markets Analyst
Thanks. I wanted to just a follow up on whats been going on over the last couple of months. Maybe
the last couple of years. As you have seen the rapid growth of a lot of a one-off and small chain
sushi places, do you think thats impacted traffic in markets where you may be? Or have those a
little more deeply saturated than others?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
This is Rick. Im not so sure that the specific occasion of sushi has had a negative impact on
either of our two brands. I think that particular category is a unique dining experience. It really
doesnt cross over to the point where you get what I would call flavor confusion. Oftentimes, I
think if we have any internal pressure between our brands, its that I can satisfy a certain flavor
craving in
Pei Wei. And it might have a marginal impact on a potential trip to the Bistro and vice versa. But
if I look specifically at the Japanese segment, Im not so sure that that necessarily is the case.
In fact, you probably recall a couple of years ago, we thought that the Japanese segment would be a
good complement into our business rather than a cannibal to our business.
Brad Ludington KeyBanc Capital Markets Analyst
Yes. Okay. And then, also, and I apologize if you hit this, I got knocked off for a minute. On the
pullback in the Bistro development, did you say what drove that change?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
We didnt speak specifically to it. The reality is, we have had a couple of deals long-standing
deals in the pipeline that have had some development challenges. And we were butting up against
some lease rights to terminate and which we chose to exercise. There is some possibility that those
deals might come back to us, and they are fundamentally around a landlords ability to deliver what
they promised. If they are able to go ahead and push forward, well reengage with those particular
landlords. But at this point in time, it was in our best interest to just terminate and allow them
to figure out how they are going to get their financing and the balance of their co-tenancy before
we move forward.
Brad Ludington KeyBanc Capital Markets Analyst
Okay. And then, Im sorry. Did I cut you off there?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
No.
Brad Ludington KeyBanc Capital Markets Analyst
Okay, and then finally, do you see any when you are running media for Pei Wei, or anything for
the Bistro do you see any difference in traffic trends around media runs and off media runs.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Well, what we see are very different approaches in the respective brands in terms of how were
choosing to market. Pei Wei tends to be a little bit more aggressive and up-front in their
marketing plans and mostly around the limited time offerings as well as the social media. Where the
Bistro tends to be more consistent in the form of sponsorships and community-based activities and
those types of things. When Pei Wei launches a new LTL , they are very aggressive from both a media
perspective as well as a PR perspective. And we do see a lot of activity. While at the Bistro, it
tends to be a little bit more of a straight line, and you dont necessarily see the spikes and then
the falls off of particular media driven highs.
Brad Ludington KeyBanc Capital Markets Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Youre welcome.
Operator
Your next question comes from Sharon Zackfia. Your line is open.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Hi, Mark. Just a couple questions. When you were talking about the comp trends so far in April,
were you adjusting for Easter? Or is that the actual comp?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Im sorry.
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Its the actual comp, Sharon.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Its the actual comp? So, what does Easter do to the comp? Does that obviously, you were closed
on Easter, I would assume its a low volume day?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Easter itself isnt positive for us. But overall, for the week, its not too different than other
weeks. We typically see higher sales during the week, and then we pretty much get most of that back
on the weekend. Really what plays a bigger role for us is the various Spring Break activity through
March and April. Some states have their Spring Break tied to Easter. Others dont. So, its really
moved around a bit, and thats why it is important for us to get past the next couple of weeks here
to really get a true read for the underlying trend thats going on in our system.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Okay.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Sharon, just to add some clarity. We are open on Easter. Easter is not necessarily as strong a
Sunday as other Sundays would be. So if you were lapping Easter over Easter it would be one number,
but when you are lapping Easter over a normal Sunday typically, we are going to be down a little
bit.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Yes, thats kind of what I figured.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
But we are open.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Im not sure that you gave out the average check for the Bistro or Pei Wei? What you saw there? I
saw that you took 2% to 3% of price, or that was the benefit. But Id also the press release
alluded to some negative mix? So Im curious as to how much of that you were able to carry through
into the average ticket?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Ill start with the tickets. The ticket was down a little bit for us at the Bistro. It was down
about 3%. But, we estimate we actually had about the same number of guests that were coming to the
door compared to last year. As weve previously talked about, the high dollar ticket improved for
us. And, that drove like we talked about the majority of our comp improvement. The results of
that improvement in the high dollar ticket we think we roughly had the same number of guests as
last year. It was just spread over a fewer number of tickets. So we think that we had guest
traffic was basically flat, and the average ticket was up a little bit. When youre talking about
price, and how much of its sticking, we do get part of that back.
We have some of the initiatives, like Happy Hour and the loyalty program with the Warrior Card
discount and so forth. In addition, online ordering is gaining traction. That has a little bit
lower average ticket. You dont have alcohol and so forth with that, and so that brings the ticket
down a little bit. And, our alcohol penetration this quarter was down somewhat. So, we did take
price last year, but we give some of that back away in some of the value offers that we have as
well as some of the mix shifts that are going on.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
So, guest traffic was flattish at the Bistro. Was it down at Pei Wei?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Pei Wei was down a couple of points during the quarter. Average ticket was up a few points.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Okay.
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Most of that, Sharon, was obviously in March rather than January and February.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Right, so thats including Arizona?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Right.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Okay. Youre lapping the Happy Hour rollout soon, do you think average ticket will start to get
better at the Bistro? You may not want to use April as an example, but I thought that was part of
what you were thinking as you entered the year?
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Specific to the Happy Hour timeframe, Sharon, I think we are seeing some improvement there in terms
of average ticket during that timeframe. And, I would expect as we push forward that to continue.
Some of the pricing that we are going to take on the main menu is on the alcoholic beverage section. So, Im guessing we will see a little bit of help
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
Okay. And then one last question, Mark, I just need a refresher course on the performance units.
So, if you dont hit your plan for this year, can you remind us as to what kind of earnings you
might get back from not accruing for the performance units? Or is that a done deal, and youre
going to have a certain [cent] penalty in 2011?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Its certainly not a done deal. It is tied to our stock performance, as well as the Russell 2000.
It is difficult to predict. We actually had a few pennies of benefit this quarter. In total for the
year, our original forecast had $0.24 expense baked into it, and that was $0.13 of incremental
expense. So, it really depends on our stock performance versus the Russell 2000. What we havent
done we have the benefit here in Q1. We havent adjusted our forecast for the next three
quarters.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
So there is the potential to miss the earnings guidance or I guess, miss the sales guidance but
still hit the earnings guidance because of the performance units. Or am I thinking about that
incorrectly?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
It all depends it is difficult for us to predict our stock price.
Sharon Zackfia William Blair & Company Analyst
All right. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Keith Siegner. Your line is open.
Keith Siegner Credit Suisse Analyst
Thanks. I just want to follow up on the Bistro a little bit. Some of the sales-driving initiatives
and some of the marketing. The sales-driving initiatives seemed to have been and continue to be
kind of internal menu changes, adjustments to the experience once you get that customer in the
store. The marketing program you just talked about again, was kind of sponsorships and
community-based activities. And this has all kind of been the program for the last couple of years.
And what Im wondering is, does there need to be a change? More marketing, more reasons to more
of an approach to pull back the lapsed user. Give people a reminder to come back in. Does the
marketing program need to be revisited?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Let me take that. There are a couple of pieces to the puzzle that I probably didnt articulate that
are more specific to time period traffic generation. So for example, when we rolled the Triple
Happiness or the Happy Hour, we did a lot of local, Phoenix-based because that was our test
market marketing initiatives that were focused on a specific activity. When we get ready to
launch lunch, we will be more aggressive in terms of our media and messaging around lunch.
I think the Catch-22 for the Bistro in terms of simply increasing marketing spend is the fact that
this particular brand is not very densely penetrated. So you go to an individual market where you
have a single store or two or three stores and you start to spread marketing dollars over it.
It doesnt necessarily generate the kind of returns that you would expect from an organization
which is candidly more media-efficient. And thats just simply a function of the fact that there
are a fewer numbers of the Bistros in any given market.
Ultimately from a Pei Wei perspective, as you start to fill in markets and why you see them more
aggressive in their sort of their media approach is the fact that they simply have deeper
density and more penetration in an individual market. So there are components of what youre
talking about in the marketing plans, but youre probably not going to see the Bistro become a
national media, marketing player along the lines of a brand like pick Chilis or Applebees or
Darden or some of those types of brands.
Keith Siegner Credit Suisse Analyst
Just one question then on Pei Wei, as well. You talked about there is still some work going on on
refining the design, and when you talk about that, are you referring mostly to the investment cost
of the box? Are there changes to the operations? How things are cooked? When theyre cooked, labor
structure. If you could give us some more color on whats being evaluated at the design evaluation,
that would be helpful.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Great question. I think from simply from a real estate perspective, and I think we may have
talked about this on prior calls. Pei Wei real estate model has typically been we would like to
take 3,200 square feet on the end cap of a high traffic-generated retail center. And, what weve
done from a design perspective over the last several months is to work on more flexibility where
you could take space that wasnt necessarily on the end cap. Didnt necessarily have to have a door
on the front and a door on the side for take-out. But yet still maintained a high level of
acceptance from the consumer in terms of being able to use it either for a take-out experience or
for a dine-in experience.
We had started to work, and theres been some learnings around the development of our Pei Wei
Takeaway which is our relationship with HMS Host. And we got a three-store test for one of our
Takeaway businesses where we would be able to take a smaller footprint, fewer seats, into a market
that was higher propensity for take-out. So, currently 40% of system average business for Pei Wei
is in take-out, but there are particular markets where that number would be significantly higher.
And you would be able to go in and take smaller footprints, maybe with fewer dine-in seats.
In those particular circumstances, we would look at changing the menu, changing some of the
delivery format, changing possibly what we are serving the product on. Theres a fairly thorough
sort of wide open test, internal conversation thats going on around what could you actually take
out of that experience and put into the Takeaway business and yet still be branded as a Pei Wei.
Keith Siegner Credit Suisse Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from John Ivankoe. Your line is open.
John Ivankoe JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst
Great. Thank you. A couple of questions if I may. Rick, I think to an earlier question you talked
about how you compare yourself to yourself in prior years. I was wondering, maybe outside of value,
how you could look at guest satisfaction scores and employee satisfaction scores at the Bistro
brand. Not necessarily just versus last year, but previous years. And what Im alluding to is
sometimes companies it is very common, you start to run your business to a lower level of sales
and sometimes it can become somewhat circular that the lower level of costs can lead to lower
levels of sales and that kind of it to be a little bit of circular, if you will. So, give us
comfort that thats something that you are being careful of again, continuing to do a better job
for your customer and employee in this type of environment.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Could not agree with you more. One of the things that I think I would point to, if you simply look
at guest satisfaction at the Bistro, we do use outside services to come in and monitor the
performance of the individual restaurants or on a regional basis. And, rather than doing those on a
month-to-month basis because they tend to become a little bit diluted, we do them on a several
times a year, we will go in and evaluate the performance of the stores. And, those scores have
actually been moving north over the last, probably two years.
Internally, and I think this is a very important change in how we think about incentives at the
business. Without going into great detail into our management compensation plans, weve always
given the highest level of bonuses to store operators who grow sales and grow profits at the same
time. We have a middle band were if you grow sales or you grow profits one or the other
youre kind of in a middle band. And the lowest band is you are doing neither.
We are in the process of making some changes to that where we give greater weighting to growing
sales versus growing profits because we know we cant cut our way to prosperity. And we know that
the long-term success of our businesses will be predicated on our ability to grow traffic and our
ability to grow revenue. So, we are shifting. It will happen about the middle part of this year. We
are shifting our compensation plans to give greater weighting to sales growth and less weighting to
profit-building.
John Ivankoe JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst
The system is getting, I guess, a little bit of age on it, and your CapEx for existing units has
always been fairly low because the system previously has been very new. Does it make sense to
consider either an intermediate or more significant type of capital reinvestment program in the
units? Are you seeing the asset as any bit of an issue relative to how consumers perceived the
brand a few years ago?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Well, yes and no. I think, intuitively, you would say that would be the case. So, if you are moving
forward, and youre thinking about what will PF Changs look like five years from now? Will it look
like it did 10 years ago? And the answer, I think clearly is going to be, no. And theres a couple
of things that are in play.
I think one is, we do have some assets that are coming up on the end of their lease life, and were
actually taking a store in one of those stores, and weve gone out and found a new and unique
design group. And we are going to treat that as, I internally call it the PF Changs killer. If you
were going to go and compete with us today, what would it look like? What would the menu be like?
What would the music sound like? What would the employee look like? What would the menu design be
like? It will be a very comprehensive opportunity for us to take and dial in all of the things that
we would do if we were starting this business today.
Some of it will stick, and some of it wont. Some of it will translate into our existing
businesses, and some of it wont. But it will be a very thoughtful approach at trying to define
what this business can look like or could look like over the next 10 years.
The other thing, that again, we have to be very cautious about, is when we do [queue] our customer
when we do go out and do research on our dining experience, and when we track all of the social
media feedback thats floating around out there. Design is not an issue for us. How our restaurants
feel we do invest a lot of money in maintaining the look of our restaurants. We dont have
restaurants that are have what I would call age challenges, because we are constantly
reinvesting in making sure that our repairs and maintenance and all of those things are up to
speed. So, at the end of the day, I think thats a very the look and feel of the restaurant is a
very important component. But our ability to execute our brand, I think, is probably the most
important characteristic that we can be focused on right now.
John Ivankoe JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst
One more if I may, how are you perceived the frozen food business relative to your brand? Certainly
over the last quarter and maybe I dont watch as much television as Id like. Or maybe as I
should, I dont know. But its not very much. But I see a lot of PF Changs branded food
advertisements on television. Do you hindsight being 20/20 do you think it is a net positive
for your business at this point? Or might it be more dilutive than you thought it may have been
when you launched that product?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
I think the product has been out there just a little bit less than a year, so its probably
premature to determine whether or not its been dilutive or accretive. All of the homework and all
of the research which was millions of dollars of consumer testing told us that the product, the
positioning, the branding would be neutral to accretive to the brand. A next step for us will be to
go now that the product is out there for a while is to go back and redo some of that research
and to make some determinations as to whether or not it enhancing the image of our Company. And
particularly, the PF Changs brand, or whether its dilutive. But, at this point in time, it would
be difficult for me to give you a concrete answer as to whether it is one or the other.
John Ivankoe JPMorgan Chase & Co. Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much, Rick.
Operator
Your next question comes from Bart Glenn. Your line is open
Bart Glenn D.A. Davidson & Co. Analyst
Thank you. I was curious if you had any opportunities to try and speed table turns at each of the
concepts? Thank you.
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Let me attack that one. I think there is, if you look at the dinner dining experience, we really
dont have any activity that would be focused on speeding that up. We think that at the upper end
of casual dining its important to give guests a full dining experience rather than an expeditious
dining experience.
When I speak about our ability to be more aggressive at lunch, I think there is a significant
opportunity for us there to be more aggressive in terms of table turn and to crafting a lunch
experience that can be executed in a timeframe that is more consistent with what the guest expects
to spend at lunch. As I said, for years we have been executing dinner at lunch, and now it is time
for us to be more sensitive to the time constraints that the lunch customer has. We are using and
testing some technologies to be able to do that. The new menu will be designed to enhance the speed
of service on the front end and on the back end of the dining experience. So, I think the simple
answer is yes and no.
Bart Glenn D.A. Davidson & Co. Analyst
And, at Pei Wei?
Rick Federico P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Chairman, co-CEO
Pei Wei is designed to be a speed of service and convenience and product quality play. The only
change that one would think about in order to make it a faster experience is pre-cooking or having
product available when the guest sits down . And, I think that would compromise product quality,
and so in the spirit of always error on the side of delivering the highest quality product, we
think the speed of service, given their positioning, is where they need to
Bart Glenn D.A. Davidson & Co. Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Mitch Speiser. Your line is open.
Mitchell Speiser Buckingham Research Analyst
Thanks very much. First, Id like to ask about pricing, and I think on the fourth quarter call you
mentioned slight pricing for 2011. Now its 2% to 3%. So, I guess my direct question is, did you
uptick your pricing? And was there any uptick in pricing in the first quarter?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
You are kind of breaking up. I think I got most of it. I think youre asking about pricing. We took
pricing in May. We havent taken any pricing yet here at the Bistro. This year, we plan to take it
in May. So the price that we have is roughly 2%-ish is really from May last year. Pei Wei has taken
price. They took it in February. Somewhere in that 2% to 3% range.
Mitchell Speiser Buckingham Research Analyst
Okay, got it. And I guess, just to follow up on that question. It seemed like, I think, you termed
it slight pricing in 2011. Now youre saying 2% to 3% pricing in 2011. So in terms of maintaining
your earnings guidance for the full year, despite comps slowing here in April and coming in a
little bit light in the first quarter. Is that because you are now taking a little bit more pricing
than you thought you would three months ago?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
The Bistro the menu price as we talked earlier. Its somewhere that 1.5% range that we got
coming in in May. So it is less than we took last year.
Mitchell Speiser Buckingham Research Analyst
Okay. Maybe if I could just ask it one other way. Did you raise your pricing target in 2011 versus
three months ago? Or is it the same pricing plan as you told us a few months ago?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
No, there has been no change in that regard.
Mitchell Speiser Buckingham Research Analyst
Okay. Thanks. Secondly, just if I could revisit the performance units question. If I recall, you
have a full accrual of the $7.2 million in 2011 working through your income statement as related to
your guidance. So, if the stock price, just say, would align with these levels, there might be a
little bit of a reversal in that $7.2 million accrual?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Thats right. Right now, like we said, we had originally $0.24 baked into the forecast. The Monte
Carlo evaluation came in a little bit off of our forecast in Q1. We had about $0.03 of benefit that
we recognized in the first quarter. We have not adjusted our forecast over the next three quarters.
So weve left that the same. If our performance against the Russell 2000 does change, there is a
possibility that you can see further adjustments to that valuation.
Mitchell Speiser Buckingham Research Analyst
Okay. Thank you. And my last question is on the Bistro and at Happy Hour where essentially Happy
Hour last year was a discounted item. Half-price entrees at the Happy Hour time period. Now, with
this new menu, which seems interesting and has a higher margin, but do you think I guess the
direct question is, was Happy Hour in line with your expectations this quarter? And the new menu,
did it live up to the expectation?
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Hi, Mitch. This is Bert. We continue to see good penetration at Happy Hour in the first quarter of
this year. I would say that in terms of our expectations its probably right in line where we would
hoped it would be. The guests are accepting the new product well. And as you mentioned, weve
changed the mix of products that is being offered from discounted items coming straight off the
menu to a series of new items. Our employees like it, and our guests like it. So, so far, so good
during that Happy Hour time.
Mitchell Speiser Buckingham Research Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve Anderson. Your line is open.
Stephen Anderson Miller Tabak Analyst
Yes, just to follow-up on the last question. Youre talking about the 1.5% menu price increase you
intend to take in May. That is going to lap the you are coming off 2.5% pricing from last year?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
About 2% around 2% that we took in May of last year. And were taking the price at about the
same time as we took it last year. So that around 2% is going to roll off, and were going to
have 1.5% going on.
Stephen Anderson Miller Tabak Analyst
Have you discussed doing something as a follow-up later on in the year?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Not in our forecast or thoughts right now.
Stephen Anderson Miller Tabak Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Peter Saleh. Your line is open.
Peter Saleh Telsey Advisory Group Analyst
Great. Just wondering if you are seeing a change in the mix of the Dinner for Two? Maybe as gas
prices are going up, Im just wondering if consumers are trying to migrate toward some more
perceived value on your menu?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Yes, they are. We continue to see Dinner for Two continue to be resonate well with the guests.
Be a guest favorite. Over the last couple of years, it has continued to migrate up. Its now over
10% of all of our transactions have a Dinner for Two.
Peter Saleh Telsey Advisory Group Analyst
And then your CapEx expectation for 2011?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
CapEx expectations now we brought it down a little bit given the change that we have in
development. Right now, were looking at $35 million to $40 million for the year.
Peter Saleh Telsey Advisory Group Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Rob Wilson. Your line is open.
Rob Wilson Tiburon Research Analyst
Yes, thank you. Mark, in Q1 you said you benefited a few pennies from the performance units. Was
that because you accrued less than last year? Or did you maybe call back some of that accrual that
was accrued in 2010?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Yes. The valuation on the Monte Carlo actually came in a little bit lower than it was at the end of
last year in Q4. And so, as you adjust for the performance units, depending on the amount of time
that youve gone, youre adjusting back more and more quarters. So, both compared to our
expectations in our forecast as well as last year. We did have some favorability. It was down about
$900,000, year-over-year, Q1 versus Q1.
Rob Wilson Tiburon Research Analyst
Okay. And could you help us understand how those performance units work relative to the Russell
2000? How should we look at that?
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Hey, Rob, this is Bert. In very simplistic terms, what we have is a [pair of straights]. Were long
PF Changs, short the Russell. Technically, we dont have that in place. In essence, it works the
same way. The performance units will have value, if and only if, the stock price of PF Changs
outperforms the Russell over a three-year period. That is it in a nutshell.
Rob Wilson Tiburon Research Analyst
Do you know could you help us? What is the start date?
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
It was in January .
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
February 16, 2009.
Rob Wilson Tiburon Research Analyst
Okay, thats very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jonathan Comp. Your line is open.
Jon Comp Robert W. Baird & Co. Analyst
Hi, thanks. Its Jon Comp calling in for David. Just a couple of questions. First, one more on the
comp trends. Just wondering, can you remind us about the specific timing of the initial Happy Hour
rollout last year. And I guess Im wondering, is there any chance that some of the weakness youve
seen at the Bistro in March and April might be partially due to some cycling some sort of overall
comps benefit that you might have gotten last year with that rollout?
Robert Bert Vivian P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. Co-CEO
Yes, the Happy Hour was actually in test in the fall of 2009. It rolled out across the system in
the first quarter of last year. Insofar as some of the weakness we have seen in March and April, I
couldnt tell you, and I certainly wouldnt pin it specifically on the Happy Hour program.
Jon Comp Robert W. Baird & Co. Analyst
Okay. Thanks. And moving ahead to the guidance, I know you have discussed a lot of the puts and
takes already. But Im wondering, maybe you can answer what level of comps you might need for the
year in order to hit the earnings guidance?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
We havent changed our expectations on our forecasts. We still think were going to deliver 1% to
2% over the next two quarters. Our top line revenue guidance was 3% to 4%. That hasnt changed.
Jon Comp Robert W. Baird & Co. Analyst
Okay. Thanks, and one last question. Just on the pricing. Given the somewhat unexplainable weakness
in recent months, any concerns about taking pricing at the Bistro in the next few weeks? Or, I
guess, any chance that you might delay the decision to take pricing until you have some greater
clarity around sales trends?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
No, we are going to take the price. Like I said earlier, were always cautious. There is always a
risk associated with that, but we believe that with the new menu design and the things from an
enhancement standpoint that are going into that, that Rick alluded to earlier. That this small of a
price increase, 1.5%, isnt going to impact our traffic. We think its going to net overall, we
believe that the menu is going to be positive.
Jon Comp Robert W. Baird & Co. Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Paul Westra. Your line is open.
Paul Westra Cowen and Company Analyst
Great, just a few quick questions. What type of inflation rate do you see in your restaurant
expense line? Outside of food. Obviously, the 3% to 4% at food. Can you let us know what labor and
maybe some of your other operating expense you would generally say is running for the year?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
We typically see on the labor line, were going to run 3% to 4%. As we talked in Q4, we still
believe that we are going to have inflationary trends this year. You look at supplies, and a lot of
that is resin-based and as oil goes up, we are going to see those supplies expense go up. So
overall, we think we are going to have some inflation. Its very difficult for us to quantify
exactly how much it is, but it has been, to our best estimate, baked into our forecast.
Paul Westra Cowen and Company Analyst
So with 1.5% effective price at the Bistro, youd still all things being equal without any
change in traffic I assume is the assumption. That you would see deleverage in labor and in
operating expense line?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Yes, it all comes down to the revenue line. We feel comfortable on the inputs on the cost side. It
really comes down to our ability to deliver on the revenue side.
Paul Westra Cowen and Company Analyst
Just to be clear, youre expecting 3% plus inflation on both labor and operating expense lines for
the remainder of the year?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Typically, we see about 3% inflation on labor. Thats due to rising medical costs, wage rate
inflation, minimum wage, and so forth. I didnt quantify the operating expense.
Paul Westra Cowen and Company Analyst
Okay. And then is there anything technology-wise? Any leverage? Or any, I guess, real structural
cost-cutting at the restaurant level to offset some of the inflation there?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
No, we have none planned.
Paul Westra Cowen and Company Analyst
Okay, and last question on the retail licensing sales. If Im right, and you divide by I think
its a 1.5% royalty, it looks like the product sales on the retail level is running around $125
million. Is that right? And if so, is that what you would believe your partner would think is good,
bad, in line? Any projections would be of help?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
No, we havent talked about what our royalty rate is. We are pleased with how the original eight
SKUs are performing as well as Unilever is. But outside of that, we havent, and were not going to
comment on it. We are the only thing I will say is we do have a royalty rate increase. It
started here this month, April. And we will get another one, our last one, in April of next year.
Paul Westra Cowen and Company Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Sophia [Siddiqi]. Your line is open.
Sofia Siddiqi Barclays Capital Analyst
Hi, I am filling in for Jeff Bernstein of Barclays. Just want to get a sense about what you think
of gas prices. Everybody has been worried about the impact on discretionary spending. Was wondering
if you could tell us if from a historical perspective if there is any impact on either the brands?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Its difficult to say what is causal related to our softness right now. But I can tell you any time
you have things that are nibbling away at disposable income, it is not favorable to the consumer.
And when gas prices are going up, obviously thats not we wouldnt put that on the favorable
checkmark side. So, its difficult for us to say just how causal it is though.
Sofia Siddiqi Barclays Capital Analyst
And, is there would there be more of an impact to Pei Wei given the lower average check?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
My guess is it probably would be as some of those occasions are probably more discretionary versus
what you have going on at the Bistro. The Bistro has more of the business spend which isnt going
to be as impacted by that as well as some of the social spending. If your gas price is going up
youre probably not cutting out those occasions. Its probably a little easier to cut out the
occasions at lunch which would more impact Pei Wei.
Sofia Siddiqi Barclays Capital Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Steve Anderson. Your line is open.
Stephen Anderson Miller Tabak Analyst
I might have missed this on the call, but can you say what the comps are running right now over at
Pei Wei for April?
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Yes. What we are seeing right now through April, they are down about 5%. But when you back Easter
out, they are more impacted by Easter. They are down around 3% which is similar to where the Bistro
is running.
Stephen Anderson Miller Tabak Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
I will now turn the meeting back over to Mark. Thank you. You may close.
Mark Mumford P.F. Changs China Bistro, Inc. CFO
Thank you. Thank you for joining us here today. Our next earnings call is going to be on July 17 to
discuss the second quarter results. Well see you then. Thanks.