EX-99.1 2 a05-9317_1ex99d1.htm EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

 

 

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Morgan Stanley Energy Day

Greg King, President

 



Safe Harbor Statement

 

Statements contained in this presentation that state either company’s or their management’s expectations or predictions of future events are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The words “believe,” “expect,” “should,” “estimates,” and other similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. It is important to note that either company’s actual results could differ materially from those projected in their forward-looking statements. For more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or forecast, see both companies’ annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on the companies’ respective web sites at http://www.valero.com and http://www.premcor.com.

 

2



Prospectus Disclaimer

 

Investors and security holders are urged to read the proxy statement/prospectus that will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and will be sent to Premcor stockholders regarding the proposed merger, when it becomes available, because it will contain important information. Investors and security holders may obtain a free copy of the proxy statement/prospectus, when it is available, and other documents filed by Valero and Premcor with the SEC at the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. The proxy statement/prospectus and these other documents may also be obtained, when available, free of charge from Valero and Premcor.

 

Premcor and its directors, executive officers and certain other employees, may be deemed to be soliciting proxies from stockholders in favor of the approval of the merger and related matters. Information regarding the persons who may, under SEC rules, be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of Premcor stockholders in connection with the merger is set forth in Premcor’s proxy statement for their 2005 annual meetings, filed with the SEC April 1, 2005. Additional information will be set forth in the proxy statement/prospectus referred to above when it is filed with the SEC.

 

3



Valero to Acquire Premcor

 

                  Announced $8 billion acquisition of Premcor April 25th

                  50/50 cash and stock consideration

                  Assuming $1.8 billion of Premcor long-term debt

 

                  Cash consideration will be financed with a combination of cash on hand, bank debt, and/or proceeds from a public debt offering

 

                  Closing expected on or before December 31, 2005, subject to FTC and Premcor shareholder approval

 

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Strategic Rationale

 

                  Premcor assets a great fit with Valero

                  Combined company would be largest refiner in North America

                  Enhanced geographic diversity, which further increases earnings stability

                  Aligned strategies that further increase exposure to light-heavy spread

                  Combined entity would process around 1 million bpd of Maya-like crudes by 2007

 

                  Premcor assets provide profit improvement opportunities

                  Ample optimization and strategic opportunities

                  Valero has proven track record of increasing reliability, capacity and yields

 

                  Market value of refining assets approaching replacement costs

                  Scarcity of quality U.S. refining assets

                  Acquiring 790 mbpd of capacity at 70% of current replacement cost

 

5



Premier Refiner in North America

 

North American Crude Capacity (mbpd)

 

North American Conversion Capacity (mbpd)

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

6



Enhanced Geographic Diversity

 

U.S. Refining Crude Capacity Rank by PADD (bbls/day) (1)

 

PADD I

 

 

 

% of
PADD

 

Sunoco

 

655,000

 

41.6

%

ConocoPhillips

 

423,000

 

26.9

%

Valero - Premcor

 

341,000

 

21.7

%

Premcor

 

175,000

 

11.1

%

Valero

 

166,000

 

10.5

%

United Refining

 

66,700

 

4.2

%

Total PADD I

 

1,574,000

*

 

 

 


*                 Does not include imports

 

PADD II

 

 

 

% of
PADD

 

MAP

 

631,000

 

18.1

%

BP

 

546,250

 

15.6

%

ConocoPhillips

 

493,000

 

14.1

%

Valero - Premcor

 

431,750

 

12.4

%

Premcor

 

346,750

 

9.9

%

Flint Hills

 

257,213

 

7.4

%

Valero

 

85,000

 

2.4

%

Total PADD II

 

3,492,613

 

 

 

 

PADD III

 

 

 

% of
PADD

 

ExxonMobil

 

1,586,000

 

19.7

%

Valero - Premcor

 

1,239,000

 

15.4

%

Royal Dutch Shell

 

1,203,700

 

14.9

%

Valero

 

989,000

 

12.3

%

ConocoPhillips

 

851,700

 

10.6

%

CITGO

 

575,064

 

7.1

%

Premcor

 

250,000

 

3.1

%

Total PADD III

 

8,052,965

 

 

 

 

PADD IV

 

 

 

% of
PADD

 

Sinclair

 

94,500

 

16.0

%

Suncor Energy

 

60,000

 

10.2

%

ExxonMobil

 

60,000

 

10.2

%

Tesoro

 

60,000

 

10.2

%

ConocoPhillips

 

58,000

 

9.8

%

Valero - Premcor

 

28,000

 

4.7

%

Valero

 

28,000

 

4.7

%

Premcor

 

 

0.0

%

Total PADD IV

 

590,700

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% of

 

PADD V

 

 

 

PADD

 

ChevronTexaco

 

539,000

 

18.0

%

BP

 

496,900

 

16.6

%

Tesoro

 

441,200

 

14.7

%

Royal Dutch Shell

 

406,200

 

13.5

%

ConocoPhillips

 

337,700

 

11.3

%

Valero - Premcor

 

217,500

 

7.3

%

Valero

 

217,500

 

7.3

%

Premcor

 

 

0.0

%

•Total PADD V

 

•2,999,600

 

 

 

 


(1)         Source: Oil & Gas Journal Worldwide Refining Survey December 2004. Excludes Aruba refinery (285 bpd) and Jean Gaulin refinery (215 bpd).

 

7



Financial Benefits

 

Significantly accretive to earnings and cash flow per share

 

 

 

14% accretive to estimated 2006 Case earnings per share

 

 

13% accretive to estimated 2006 Case cash flow per share

 

 

 

 

At least $350 million of annually recurring synergies

 

 

 

 

Expect to retain investment grade credit rating

 

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Significant Synergy Opportunities

 

                  Expect at least $350 million of annual recurring synergies

                  Expect full realization in year 2

 

                  Administrative synergies

                  Reduced SG&A expenses of $130 million

                  Reduced refinery insurance expense of $15 million

 

                  Annual operational profit improvements of $205 million

                  Delaware City coker and gasifier optimization projects ($100 million)

                  Expand Memphis FCC and crude unit ($50 million)

                  Crude supply savings at Delaware City and Port Arthur ($15 million)

                  Energy conservation opportunities at all 4 refineries ($10 million)

                  Propylene recovery and butane processing at Delaware City ($10 million)

 

                  Limited capital required to achieve operational synergies

 


* See appendix for further details

 

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Financial Impact - Key Assumptions

 

                  Key Price Drivers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-Cycle

 

($ per barrel)

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

’01-’05 Avg.

 

WTI

 

41.45

 

53.15

 

52.00

 

35.55

 

USGC Gas Crack

 

7.69

 

6.91

 

7.50

 

5.87

 

USGC High Sulfur Heat Crack

 

3.95

 

7.46

 

8.00

 

3.73

 

Arab Medium crude vs. WTI

 

(6.36

)

(9.06

)

(8.25

)

(5.60

)

Maya crude vs. WTI

 

(11.47

)

(16.44

)

(15.00

)

(9.78

)

 

                  Key Assumptions:

                  Close December 31, 2005

                  2005 price forecast based on first quarter actuals and the forward curve as of April 12, 2005

                  2006 price forecast based on Valero’s projections

                  Projected goodwill of $2 billion

                  For 2006, approximately $190 million of synergies in the 2006 Case and $145 million in synergies in the Mid-Cycle case

                  Fully diluted shares outstanding of 327 million in 2006 Case & Mid-Cycle Case

 

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Financial Impact

 

2006 Earnings Per Share

 

2006 Free Cash Flow ($MM)

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

 

 

 2006 Free Cash Flow / Debt

 

2006Year-End Net Debt / Capitalization

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

 

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Tight Supply/Demand Fundamentals

 

Global Demand Growth Compared To Refinery Capacity Expansion

 

[CHART]

 

                  2000 to 2004, demand growth absorbed global excess capacity

                  Future demand expected to continue to outpace capacity growth

 

                  Strong worldwide economic growth spurring crude oil demand

                  2004 record crude oil demand growth of 2.6 mmbpd – highest ever

                  2005 shaping up to be another outstanding year with growth estimates of around 2 mmbpd

 

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Incremental Crude Supply Primarily Sour

 

[CHART]

 

                  Majority of demand growth being met with sour crude

 

                  Expect sour discounts to remain wide

 

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2005 Sour Crude Fundamentals

 

WTI vs. USGC Maya, $/bbl.

 

WTI vs. Mars, $/bbl.

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

                  Expect sour crude discounts to widen as more resid comes to market and demand for crudes increase in 2H05

 

                  Forward curve for Maya and Mars indicating a record year

 

NOTE: Forward Curve as of May 11, 2005

 

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2005 Refined Product Fundamentals

 

USGC Gas Crack, $/bbl.

 

USGC Heat Crack, $/bbl.

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 

                  Gasoline demand up 1.1% YTD

 

                  Distillate margins at record levels

                  Strong global economic activity

                  Distillate imports are down 20% YTD

 

NOTE: Forward Curve as of May 10, 2005

 

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2006 – Another Great Year

 

                  Major changes in U.S. sulfur specs

 

                  30 ppm gasoline Jan. 1, 2005

                  Further restricts pool of potential imports

                  Turnarounds expected to amplify supply issues

                  Yield losses

 

                  15 ppm diesel June 2006

                  Potential supply problems

                  Logistics/contamination issues

 

                  Worldwide demand expected to remain strong

 

                  Increased demand for sweet crudes

                  Strong demand for lighter, higher value products to increase demand for sweet crudes

                  Sour crude refiners will benefit

 

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Higher Highs, Higher Lows

 

Rolling 5 - Year Average

 

[CHART]

 


* Based on historical and Valero’s projection

 

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Q & A

 

 

18



Appendix

 

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Geographically Diverse System

 

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NOTE: Complexity based on Nelson Complexity calculation from O&G Journal 2004 Refining Survey

 

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Synergy Detail

 

Synergies and Other Savings/Improvements

 

$MM/year

 

Comments

 

Corporate SG&A Savings

 

$

55

 

Headquarters expense, marketing cost

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incentive Compensation

 

$

60

 

Premcor vs. Valero bonus, stock option expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Financing Cost

 

$

15

 

Letter of credit savings, Morgan Stanley financing facility

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strategic Sourcing - Refineries

 

$

15

 

Catalyst, chemicals, operating supplies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Insurance Cost Reduction

 

$

15

 

Premcor cost vs. Valero rate basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crude Supply Savings

 

$

15

 

Cargo sharing & flexibility - Delaware City & Port Arthur

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coker/FCC/Gasifier Reliability – Delaware City

 

$

100

 

Improved rates, feedstock optimization (Gasifier from 1200 to 1800 st/d, coker from 38-48 Mbpd, slurry feed to coker, oxygen enrichment of FCC, heavier crude slate)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Delaware City integration with Valero

 

$

10

 

Isobutane, propylene, benzene production (utilize spare Butamer capacity for Paulsboro isobutane, spare extraction capacity for Quebec benzene concentrate, propylene recovery)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Memphis FCC Revamp/ Discounted crude

 

$

50

 

Catalyst cooler and oxygen enrichment improves refinery utilization (FCC expansion from 68 to 78 Mbpd, better utilization of crude and downstream capacity - crude from 165 to 180 Mbpd; high-TAN crude slate)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Memphis Integration with Krotz Springs

 

$

5

 

Process Krotz Springs high sulfur distillate at Memphis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Energy Conservation - All Refineries

 

$

10

 

Miscellaneous projects utilizing Valero best practices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total achievable in 2007

 

$

350

 

 

 

 

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