NovaStar Financial
(NYSE-NFI)
www.novastarmortgage.com
2006 First Quarter Earnings
Conference Call
May 5, 2006
Safe Harbor Statement
Certain matters discussed in this release constitute forward-looking
statements within the meaning of the
federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are those that predict or describe future events and that do
not relate solely to historical matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties
and
certain factors can cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Some important factors that
could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated include: our ability to generate sufficient
liquidity on
favorable terms; the size and frequency of our securitizations; interest rate fluctuations on our
assets that differ from our liabilities; increases in prepayment or default rates on our mortgage assets; changes
in assumptions regarding estimated loan
losses and fair value amounts; changes in origination and resale
pricing of mortgage loans; our compliance with applicable local, state and federal laws and regulations or
opinions of counsel relating thereto and the impact of new local, state or federal
legislation or regulations or
opinions of counsel relating thereto or court decisions on our operations; the initiation of margin calls under
our credit facilities; the ability of our servicing operations to maintain high performance standards
and
maintain appropriate ratings from rating agencies; our ability to expand origination volume while maintaining
an acceptable level of overhead; our ability to adapt to and implement technological changes; the stability of
residual property values;
the outcome of litigation or regulatory actions pending against us or other legal
contingencies; the impact of losses resulting from natural disasters; the impact of general economic conditions;
and the risks that are from time to time included in our
filings with the SEC, including our Annual Report on
Form 10-K, for the period ending December 31, 2005. Other factors not presently identified may also cause
actual results to differ. This document speaks only as of its date and we expressly disclaim
any duty to update
the information herein.
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Opening Comments &
NovaStar Financial REIT Test
Discussion
Scott Hartman, CEO
Overview of Issues
NovaStar (REIT) aggressively hedges the
interest rate risk embedded in our mortgage
securities portfolio
Due to rates rising almost 4% during the past 24
months, the cash flow from our hedges has
substantially increased while the cash flow from
the mortgage securities portfolio has decreased.
Problem – too much hedge income in the REIT
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The Math
Securitization strategy and example
Every $1B of loan “on-balance sheet” would generate
$70 million to $80 million of good REIT income per
year
NFI mortgage securities represent the same “economic”
interest, but less taxable income
Mtg securities = 5% of loan balance * 20% yield = $10 million
As of today, we believe excessive hedge income is
a 2006 only “bubble” due to the hedges expiring
for our 2003, 2004 and 2005 deals.
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Steps Taken to
Solve the Problem
Step 1 - Put loans on NFI (REIT) balance sheet to
create more good REIT income and assets
$1 billion purchase of payment option ARMS
Structure 2006-1 as on-balance sheet financing
Financial impact of Step 1
Inconsistent GAAP results due to change in
securitization strategy
Elimination of gain-on-sale in consolidation
Up-front loan loss reserve
Slightly more GAAP income in subsequent periods
A little more capital used/lower ROE with financing
structure
Excess inclusion income
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Steps Taken to
Solve the Problem
Step 2 – Reduce hedge income in REIT by
moving “hedge” securities to taxable REIT
subsidiary (TRS).
Because of securitization structure, we can move the
securities containing hedge cash flows to TRS
Impact of Step 2
Hedge cash flow is now taxed in TRS (slight drag on
GAAP income).
TRS has NOLs, no effect on cash flow (slight positive)
Build capital in TRS (slight positive)
Slightly less taxable income in REIT
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Steps Taken to
Solve the Problem
Impact of Step 2 – GAAP Impairment
Issues
Our securities are well hedged with embedded
derivatives
Strategy doesn’t change security cash flow but
changes GAAP accounting and impairment risk
for the “mortgage only” security
Rates up 100bp would create a gain in the
“hedge” security (shown through equity) and an
impairment on the “mortgage” security (shown
through the income statement). The
following
schedule shows an example.
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GAAP Impairment Example
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Going Forward in 2006
Taxable income numbers are rough estimates and
rates could rise further, creating more hedge
income
We are closely monitoring and may need to take
additional steps
Options include
Structure another securitization of NovaStar collateral
as a financing
Purchasing additional mortgage loans
Purchasing short-term, AAA-rated mortgage securities
that mature in 2007
Sell / move additional securities from REIT to TRS
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Results of Operations
Greg Metz, CFO
Key Performance Metrics
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Key Performance Metrics
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Effect of change in
Securitization Structures
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2006 Dividend Guidance
2006 Common Dividends of at Least $5.60 per Share
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Mortgage Banking
Production
Production down
6% Yr/Yr, down
20% Sequentially
*
*Excludes $991 million in MTA bulk purchases
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Spreads
*Excluding MTA
7.4%*
2.0%
545 bps
8.7%*
5.0%
372 bps
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Production
Credit Characteristics
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Portfolio Management
Portfolio ROA
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Static Pool
Cumulative Losses
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Portfolio trends
Size of portfolio should be relatively stable
over the next year
Over time, ROA’s should come down to a
normalized range of 1.00% to 1.25%
Increases in the price of the nations housing
stock continues to drive excellent credit
performance
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Questions
Appendix
Cost of Wholesale
Production
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