Exhibit 99.4
Exhibit 99.4
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Event Date/Time: Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM GMT
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Eric Cerny
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Senior Manager, IR
Mike Jeffries
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Jonathan Ramsden
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
Lorraine Hutchinson
BofA Merrill Lynch Analyst
Christine Chen
Needham & Company Analyst
Randy Konik
Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Brian Tunick
JPMorgan Analyst
Dorothy Lakner
Caris & Company Analyst
Janet Kloppenburg
JJK Research Analyst
Jeff Klinefelter
Piper Jaffray Analyst
Michelle Tan
Goldman Sachs Analyst
Kimberly Greenberger
Morgan Stanley Analyst
Marni Shapiro
The Retail Tracker Analyst
Paul Lejuez
Nomura Securities Analyst
Erika Maschmeyer
Robert W. Baird Analyst
Evren Kopelman
Wells Fargo Securities Analyst
Jeff Black
Jennifer Black & Associates Analyst
Eric Beder
Brean Murray Analyst
John Morris
BMO Capital Markets Analyst
Omar Saad
ISI Group Analyst
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1
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
John Kernan
Cowen and Company Analyst
Pamela Quintiliano
Oppenheimer Analyst
Adrienne Tennant
Janney Capital Analyst
Linda Tsai
ITG Investment Research Analyst
Robin Murchison
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Analyst
Barbara Wyckoff
CLSA Analyst
David Weiner
Deutsche Bank Analyst
PRESENTATION
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Abercrombie & Fitch second-quarter earning results conference call.
Todays conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)
At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Eric Cerny. Mr. Cerny, please go
ahead.
Eric Cerny Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Senior Manager, IR
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to our second-quarter earnings call. Earlier today we released
our second-quarter sales and earnings, income statement, balance sheet, store opening and closing
summary, and an updated financial history. Please feel free to reference these materials, available
on our website.
Also available on our website is an investor presentation which we will be referring to in our
comments during this call. This call is being recorded and the replay may be accessed through the
Internet at Abercrombie.com under the investors section.
Before we begin I remind you that any forward-looking statements we may make today are subject to
the Safe Harbor statement found in our SEC filings. Todays earnings call will be limited to one
hour.
Joining me today on the call are Mike Jeffries and Jonathan Ramsden. We will begin the call with a
few brief remarks from Mike, followed by a review of the financial performance for the quarter from
Jonathan. After our prepared comments we will be available to take your questions for as long as
time permits. Now, to Mike.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We are pleased that our results for the
quarter continued to reflect strong momentum both in the US and Europe.
For the third consecutive quarter our sales were up more than 20%. This included a strong
performance from new stores, particularly the Paris flagship, but also the 19 new Hollister stores
we have opened in Europe in the last 12 months. In addition, our US chain store business performed
well for the quarter, particularly Hollister, fueled by what we believe is a compelling assortment
and supported by effective pricing and promotional strategies.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
We had long anticipated that the second quarter would be challenging from an operating income
standpoint, considering the effects of investments we are making for future growth. In that
context, we are pleased that our top-line performance enabled us to significantly beat our internal
goal for the quarter and achieve a 71% year-over-year increase in operating income.
Our second-quarter results mark the midpoint of the three-year roadmap we laid out at the beginning
of last year. Our focus remains very much on execution against our strategy and the key roadmap
objectives, while always maintaining a long-term view.
We believe maintaining that long-term approach is even more critical today, given the uncertainty
in the macroeconomic environment. I will come back to that in a moment.
First I want to take a few minutes to review our performance to date against our roadmap goals.
Starting with US store productivity, we have clearly delivered on the objectives we laid out in
February of last year. And we believe we are on course to sustain meaningful improvements and drive
back toward peak productivity levels.
These improvements have been driven by several factors. First and foremost, by having the right
merchandise and maintaining a compelling and differentiated store experience. In addition, our
pricing and promotional strategies have played a role in the productivity improvements we have
seen, and we have improved our execution of these strategies.
However, no one should conclude that even in the US chain business this is a purely price-driven
business. Even in an environment where price is increasingly important, you have to be a desirable
brand that clearly stands for something in the eye of the consumer. With regard to marketing and
customer engagement, we have made progress but we still see plenty of opportunity ahead of us.
Turning to international, we expect to hit our goal of close to 40 international Hollister openings
and five A&F flagship location openings this year. Overall, the international stores we have
already opened continue to perform very strongly.
Tomorrow marks the opening of our first Hollister store in Asia, at the Festival Walk Mall in Hong
Kong. This is a significant milestone for us, and we look forward to our first openings in Mainland
China later in the year.
In Europe the performance of our Hollister business continues to be very strong, and our new store
openings for the quarter are significantly exceeding plan in aggregate. As I mentioned a moment
ago, we are also very pleased with our Paris flagship opening and while it is still early on, we
continue to expect its volume to be in the same range as the London and Milan flagships on a
go-forward basis.
Turning to Japan, our business there remains challenged, with Ginza comping negatively through the
quarter. We remain cautious on Japan while we work to identify and address the underlying issues.
Our Canadian business is also not where we would like it to be, although it continues to operate at
a healthy profit level, and we believe the sales trend in Canada is more readily addressable.
Our direct-to-consumer business again posted strong growth of 28% for the quarter as we work
towards our $1 billion goal. This business remains a major strategic priority and source of
investment.
As for Gilly Hicks, we continue to work on our roadmap objectives and remain very excited about the
long-term prospects for the brand.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Last, we continue to focus very closely on expenses and challenge ourselves and each area of our
business to find additional efficiencies in our model. This is all the more important in an
uncertain macroeconomic environment.
Overall, we are pleased with our performance against our roadmap goals. As we look to the back half
of the year and into 2012, it is clear that we are entering a period of greater uncertainty.
As we have discussed in the past, costing issues will certainly impact us more significantly in the
back half of the year, and the consumer response to price increases remains unclear. In addition,
the global macroeconomic picture and possible exchange rate volatility add to this uncertainty,
especially given the increasing share of our business represented by Europe.
However, our strong top-line momentum and overall performance for the past several quarters gives
us confidence that we are well positioned to navigate through this environment and, while external
risks have increased, we remain comfortable with our objectives for next year.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jonathan, but will be happy to take your questions later in
the call.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Thanks, Mike; and good morning, everyone. As Mike said, the story of the quarter was essentially
that a strong top-line performance mitigated the deleveraging issues we had faced coming into the
quarter and enabled us to deliver meaningful growth in operating income and EPS.
Sales for the quarter increased 23% to $917 million. Total domestic sales including DTC were up
12%. Total international sales were up 74%.
Within international, Hollister Europe was particularly strong, both for comp and non-comp stores.
Overall DTC sales, including shipping and handling, were up 28%.
As reflected on page 6 of our presentation foreign currency changes accounted for approximately 160
basis points of the sales increase, based on converting prior-year sales at current-year rates. The
impact of foreign currency changes on our results is likely to increase going forward as
international operations account for a greater part of the mix.
Gross margin for the quarter was 63.6%, down 150 basis points from last year, putting our gross
margin for the first half of the year up 40 basis points. Gross margin dollars for the second
quarter increased 20% versus last year.
The decrease in the gross profit rate was driven primarily by an increase in average unit cost
partially offset by a higher AUR and an international mix benefit. AUR was up mid single digits for
the quarter with increases in both US and international AURs.
Across all brands, mens and womens comps were similar. Mens stronger performing categories were
knit tops and fleece, while graphic tees were weaker. Womens stronger performing categories were
woven shirts and sweaters, while graphic tees were weaker.
Turning to operating expenses on page 7 of the investor presentation, stores and distribution
expense for the quarter included store occupancy costs of $173.6 million, in line with our
guidance. All other stores and distribution costs represented 27.5% of sales.
Due to the strong sales performance we saw less deleverage on this line than we had anticipated. As
a reminder, these expenses also include $4 million of additional depreciation related to our DC
consolidation.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
MG&A for the quarter increased 16%, in line with our mid-teen guidance, driven by increases in
compensation, including incentive and equity compensation, marketing, and other expenses, net of
favorable prior-year legal settlements. MG&A for the quarter included equity and incentive comp of
$18.4 million versus $11.7 million last year.
For the quarter and excluding the effect of prior-year store closure costs, we achieved
approximately 300 basis points of expense leverage. Overall, operating income was up 71% for the
quarter.
The tax rate for the quarter was 30.7% and benefited from the strong performance of international
operations with a lower effective tax rate. On a full-year basis we now expect that the tax rate
will be somewhat below 35%, although this remains sensitive to mix shifts between domestic and
international taxable income, including the effect of currency movements.
Diluted EPS for the quarter was $0.35, $0.13 above last year, which included a $0.02 loss last year
from store closure charges. Year-to-date EPS diluted is up $0.54 versus last year.
Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with total inventory cost up 7.5% versus a
year-ago, or up 3.5% excluding in-transit. Coming into the back half of the year we believe we are
appropriately positioned with fall and basic inventory, although our spring carryover inventory is
somewhat lighter than we would have liked, reflecting the strong first-half performance.
During the quarter we repurchased approximately 950,000 shares at an aggregate cost of $64.4
million, bringing our total repurchases over the past 12 months to approximately 3 million shares
at an average cost of approximately $56 per share.
We ended the quarter with approximately $540 million in cash and cash equivalents, compared to $596
million in cash and equivalents at a comparable point last year. This number reflects buybacks and
dividends of approximately $225 million in the past 12 months and the paydown of $53 million in
revolver debt, in addition to which we have eliminated substantially all outstanding letters of
credit.
Turning to the third quarter and back half of the year, we continue to expect gross margin erosion.
However, our visibility on the magnitude of this erosion is less clear than in the first half of
the year, due to the uncertainties Mike spoke to earlier.
Some more specific guidance on third-quarter expenses is included on page 11 of our investor
presentation. This expense guidance excludes the impact of any potential impairment charges
resulting from our annual review of long-lived assets.
Store occupancy costs for the third quarter are expected to be in the low to mid $180 millions. All
other stores and distribution costs are expected to modestly delever compared to last years rate
of 24.8%, including the effect of preopening costs, DTC investments, and additional depreciation
due to the DC consolidation.
MG&A expense for the third quarter is expected to increase by a low double-digit percentage, with
the primary components of the increase being equity compensation and marketing costs. Going
forward, as we have spoken to in the past, equity compensation charges may escalate significantly.
This is a function of both the potential increases in the stock price but also of a shorter
amortization period for future awards. As a result of the approval of our amended long-term
incentive plan, we no longer anticipate that we will need to adopt liability accounting for
equity-based awards.
Our plans for store openings for the year remain in line with prior-year guidance. We now expect to
close approximately 60 to 65 US stores during the fiscal year significantly, all through natural
lease expirations. Based on current new store plans and other planned expenditures, the Company
continues to expect total capital expenditures for 2011 to be approximately $350 million.
This concludes our prepared comments section of the call. We are now available to take your
questions. Thank you.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.
Lorraine Hutchinson BofA Merrill Lynch Analyst
Thank you, good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the gross margin commentary. I know that the
visibility is pretty unclear at this point, but if you could just provide us with any commentary on
how initial price increases have gone. What the consumer acceptance has been; what types of cost
increases you are seeing; just any guidelines you could give us to help us try to model this line
item.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Lorraine, I dont think there is a whole lot of additional color we can really add. I mean, I think
we have long said that we were talking about double-digit cost increases in the back half of the
year and actually starting late in the second quarter.
As Mike said earlier, the reaction to price increases which for us have not yet fully gone into
in effect remains unclear, and its certainly too early for us to add a lot of color to that. So
I am not sure beyond what we have already said that there is really a whole lot of additional color
we can provide at this point. Clearly as we go through this quarter in particular, we will have a
greater sense of that.
Operator
Christine Chen, Needham & Company.
Christine Chen Needham & Company Analyst
Thank you. Congratulations on a great quarter. I wanted to ask about the price increases. I mean,
as I walk the stores I do feel like there has been a least a mix shift towards higher price point
items, particularly on the fashion side and maybe even on the denim side.
How are you thinking about those price increases? Is it across the board? Is it skewing the mix?
And is it more in fashion versus basics? Thanks.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
I think we have always said that it wasnt going to be uniform, that it would be based on what we
thought was appropriate, category by category and item by item. I am not sure again there is a
whole lot of color we can really add on that.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
I think let me just pipe in. There clearly is a mix influence happening in our inventories
because our inventories are shifting to a greater percentage fashion, which is what you observe in
the stores.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Christine Chen Needham & Company Analyst
Then for the fashion penetration, can you maybe shed some light on how much that has gone up? I had
to ask.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Good question. I think you see it in the stores. Thanks, Christine.
Operator
Randy Konik, Jefferies.
Randy Konik Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Just a quick question, I guess near-term and long-term. I guess Mike first. The comment in the
press release about the strong top-line momentum, how should we be thinking that is that
momentum continuing into the back-to-school period thus far? How should we thinking about how
are you thinking about the back-to-school season from your perspective?
Then I guess, Jonathan, can you give us any type of updated commentary from the after the
analyst meeting, on that $4.75 number for next year? How are you feeling about that? Thanks.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Okay, let me comment. First question. We have never given guidance on sales during a quarter, and
we are not going to now. So I cannot and will not comment on August.
What I can tell you and I think this is the important point, Randy is that our business has
always been built and managed with a long-term orientation. That applies to protecting the quality
of our merchandise and store experience. It applies to our long-term relationships with our
vendors, many of whom have been with us for many years.
It applies to our people, for whom we want to create long-term rewarding careers. And it also
applies to our stockholders, where we are fortunate to have some long-term supportive stockholders
who understand our strategy and what we are trying to accomplish. Id like this to be my biggest
message this morning.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Randy, just to comment on the second part. We remain comfortable with the $4.75 for next year. The
things that are under our control we feel good about. We have been ahead of our objectives year to
date, so that is a positive factor.
And I think weighing in the opposite direction is clearly the macroeconomic uncertainty. So net of
those two things, I think our outlook is essentially neutral to where it was when we published that
number at the investor day back in April.
Randy Konik Jefferies & Co. Analyst
Thank you.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Brian Tunick, JPMorgan.
Brian Tunick JPMorgan Analyst
Thanks; morning, guys. So I guess the question is on the gross margin side again, just trying to
understand your commentary on the back half. Is the concern about more on the AUC side? And what do
your leadtimes look like? When do we start to feel the benefit of what has happened to cotton?
Or is it more on the competitive landscape, particularly seeing where Hollister denim might be
going out the door now versus some of your competitors?
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Let me go through some of the components of gross margin, which I think illustrate why we are
saying there is less visibility in the back half than we had in the front half. First of all, you
have got the average unit cost effect, which we obviously know at this point for the back half of
the year; and I will come back to forward expectations on that in a second.
We have got price increases in the mix, which we have clearly said it is too early for us to say
what the reaction to that is going to be. We have got the possibility of a slowing economy, a
potential double-dip recession, which obviously could impact our business. Again, I think it is too
early to say on that yet, but clearly that has increased in terms of the likelihood over the last
couple of months.
I think another big factor you have to also throw into the mix is we have got a very significant
number of new stores opening internationally in the back half of the year, far more so than in the
first half of the year. The volumes we have attached to those stores could have a significant
impact on where we end the year from a gross margin standpoint.
So there are a lot of different variables in the mix. Currency on top of that is another one, given
the increasing proportion of our business in the euro zone in particular.
So I think just given all those variables, unlike our feeling six months ago when we were pretty
comfortable saying approximately flat gross margin for the spring season, we are not comfortable
being that specific in the back half of the year. But we do certainly expect there to be erosion in
the gross margin rate.
Going forward in terms of costing, we will have a relatively tough comparison in the first quarter
of 12 because, as you probably recall, we got very good costing in the first quarter of 11. We
should start to see some year-over-year favorability with regard to cotton part way through the
second quarter of next year, although I think it is also clear that the non-cotton components of
cost are continuing to inflate, particularly labor costs. But the cotton, based on where it stands
today, would start to turn more favorable for us on a year-over-year basis in the middle of the
second quarter of next year.
Brian Tunick JPMorgan Analyst
All right, terrific. Thanks guys.
Operator
Dorothy Lakner, Caris & Company.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Dorothy Lakner Caris & Company Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations from me as well. Just wondered if you could
provide a little bit more color on the Paris opening. Obviously that was a pretty big one for you.
How that was perhaps different from the London opening or the Milan opening, and what kind of
things you are learning about that.
And then just a corollary to that, what you are seeing in terms of foreign tourist business here in
the US.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Okay, let me talk a little bit about the Paris opening. It was an opening that was very much like
the London opening and the Milan opening. We had lines and excited customers.
I think what we are learning about the flagships is that we have a chain in the flagships. We are
running a chain of flagships. So we open each of those stores exactly the same way, and it is
interesting that we are getting the same response.
It leads to the point that we operate our stores the same wherever they are in the world. So from a
customers perspective, we are one experience. And that is being borne out in the flagships.
So exciting opening, exciting business continuing, and we look forward to more in the future.
Foreign tourist business in the US? I guess I can comment on last quarter it continues to be good.
Thank you, Dorothy.
Operator
Janet Kloppenburg, JJK Research.
Janet Kloppenburg JJK Research Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Congratulations; nice quarter. Mike, I was wondering if you could talk a
little bit about your level of happiness with the new denim introduction. I thought it was really
well done, and I love a lot of the new fits and washes. I wondered if you could talk a little bit
about how important that is to your business going forward?
I was also wondering if you could talk a little bit about how you view the discounting environment
in the US, and if you think it is something that we are just going to have to get used to. Or if
you see some evolution unfolding, where you may be able to be less promotional.
Jonathan, just for you. In your outlook for fiscal 12 on the my question is, when you think
about the $4.75, have you thought at all about the FX benefit you have been incurring and what
might happen? Is there any assumption there for a softening of the euro, I think is my most direct
question. Thanks so much.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Okay. First, Janet, denim. I think that the new denim fits and washes are very important to us. I
think this organization did a really good job in reengineering our denim, and I think it is
interesting that we are getting real credit for that.
Promotional outlook? I dont have a crystal ball. I really dont. We will see what happens in the
US. Clearly it is a US issue for us, not an issue in the rest of the world.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
We are very optimistic about our offerings, and we would hope that over time the US could become
less promotional. That is our intention. Lets see what happens.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Janet, on the second part of the question, we certainly do look at the sensitivities of all the
critical components of getting to that $4.75; and FX is definitely one of the more sensitive
components of that. Relative to when we put that objective out there, the euro has strengthened
or certainly it had with regard to our second-quarter results.
So we dont specifically factor in a cushion for that, but we look at the potential sensitivity of
exchange rates relative to the other sensitivities in the model around domestic same-store sales,
around international store openings. Then we weigh reasonable outcomes or reasonably likely
outcomes on each of those components. And based on all that we continue to think at this point that
$4.75 is realistic.
I think it is. Having said that, clearly when we put that objective out there we werent modeling
in a double-dip recession in the United States or a major decline in the euro. But absent either of
those things happening, we remain comfortable with that objective.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Janet, one more point about the denim. I think it is clear and everyone should understand that our
back-to-school strategy was to get our new fits on as many new customers or old customers as
possible.
Operator
Stacy Pak, Barclays Capital.
Unidentified Participant
Hi, this is Ed actually, standing in for Stacy. I just had a quick two questions. One is, I know
you dont want to comment on August month-to-date, but we just wanted to know how the trend is
looking.
The second question is, could you comment on whether you still intend to increase prices in
September and what comp for the business looks like when you remove the promotional stance in the
US? Thanks.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Ed, I think we already said that we are not going to we have never commented on intra-quarter,
intra-month sales (multiple speakers).
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Would you pass a message to Stacy? Nice try.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Yes; so that I dont think we can speak to. I think with regard to prices, I think we have already
covered that.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Then the question on what would comps look like without promo in the US, I dont think we would
even know how to go about quantifying what that would be.
Operator
Jeff Klinefelter, Piper Jaffray.
Jeff Klinefelter Piper Jaffray Analyst
So just a couple quick questions. In terms of the Hollister openings for the back half, you have
got many of those scheduled now to hit in the next few quarters. Jonathan, can you give a little
bit more color on how you expect those to hit between Q3 and Q4? Are they continuing to track at a
certain multiple of the average US volume or US productivity?
And I think just to clarify, havent you guys been giving a general comp outlook for the total
enterprise on either a quarterly or second-half basis? Im not sure if I missed that regarding your
Q3 expense guidance.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Jeff, I guess with regard to the Hollister openings in the back half of the year, they are roughly
even between the third and fourth quarter in broad terms.
In terms of the productivity of the stores we have opened, as Mike said earlier, the stores we
opened during the quarter in aggregate exceeded plan. Hollister Europe business remains very
strong, both comp and noncomp. There really it is really pretty consistently good across the
board for Hollister in Europe. So we are hopeful that those stores we are going to open in the back
half of the year will sustain that trend, and we dont see any reason why that wouldnt be the
case.
The second part of the question was what was it? Oh yes, well I think with regard to the comp
outlook, we have spoken going back to the investor day in April, Jeff about what we are
targeting. That would be clearly what we have accomplished year to date is consistent or better
than that. To be on track with our objectives, we are looking to sustain meaningful improvements in
comp store sales going forward.
I think at this point for all the reasons we have alluded to we are not going to be more specific
than that. But relative to our objective both for this quarter and beyond, we are certainly
targeting sustaining those improvements that we have seen.
Operator
Michelle Tan, Goldman Sachs.
Michelle Tan Goldman Sachs Analyst
Great, thanks. Hey, guys. So we know you guys had a great July and start to back-to-school. I am
just curious to clarify, with all the commentary on uncertainty that has come up in the macro
environment over the last three months, are you guys really talking about being concerned about
seeing if it can have a future impact on your business that you are seeing externally? Or is there
some sign of increased uncertainty as you look at whether it is day-to-day volatility in the
business or whatever that you see in your trends today?
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Was that a question about August sales?
Michelle Tan Goldman Sachs Analyst
Volatility, not absolute numbers.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Well, I think we are not doing anything different than anybody else. Which is, where there is a
significant a greater degree of uncertainty out there, you naturally think about what impact
that could have, and you want to be prepared if that becomes more significant. But I dont think we
are saying anything more than that at this point, Michelle.
Operator
Kimberly Greenberger, Morgan Stanley.
Kimberly Greenberger Morgan Stanley Analyst
Oh, great. Thank you; good morning. I guess I wont ask about August. I was actually curious about
inventory. I was impressed in the first quarter you were able to drive such strong revenue growth
with much lower growth in inventory. I have to imagine with the increase in your costs that your
unit inventories are even well below the 7.5% increase in dollars.
So Mike, I am wondering if you could just talk about how you are feeling about inventories, the way
they are positioned in the back half. Do you feel like you have got the inventory you need to do
the volume you would like to do?
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
I will let Jonathan answer that question. I think the answer is yes, but I will let him talk about
it.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Hey, Kimberly. Yes, I think as we said we feel we are appropriately positioned with fall and basic
inventory. We were a little lighter in spring carryover than we would ideally have been, just
because of the strong first-half performance in the year. But we are comfortable with where we are
for fall and basic inventory.
I think a caveat is also that the quarter-end is a point in time, so it is difficult to read too
much into that. But overall we are comfortable.
Kimberly Greenberger Morgan Stanley Analyst
Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator
Marni Shapiro, The Retail Tracker.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Marni Shapiro The Retail Tracker Analyst
Hey, guys; congratulations. I am taking seven girls to the mall later; you might want to watch your
comps in the tristate area. I have a quick marketing question. You talked a little bit about
marketing in your opening comments.
Are you changing something on the marketing side? Or is the increase to support some of your
international flagship openings? Any kind of color around that would be great.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Hey, Marni. I guess it is not really oriented to international. We typically have a fairly low-key
approach to international openings.
So it is more we have talked in the past about some of the things we are doing in social media
and interactive marketing. I think you will probably recall the presentation at the investor day on
that. So it is all those types of things that we are talking about, where we are making progress
but we still think there is plenty more we can do to help drive the business going forward.
Operator
Paul Lejuez, Nomura Securities.
Paul Lejuez Nomura Securities Analyst
Hey, thanks, guys. Just to follow up on Kimberlys question, what should we expect from you guys in
terms of inventory at the end of the third quarter? Also wondering why the current inventory
position wouldnt be somewhat of a tailwind to your gross margins, how we should think about that.
Then just a little bit more long-term in nature, wondering about Gilly Hicks international
opportunity. Is that something that can be a 2012 story? Or are you still uncertain about the
international opportunity there? Thanks.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
I guess on the first part on inventory, Paul, we would expect it to be a greater increase at the
end of the third and fourth quarters. But a significant piece of that is all the international
store openings that we have coming into play, for which we obviously have to buy inventory to
support that.
I think we cant really add much more color in terms of the gross margin than we have already said.
I think there are a lot of uncertainties to that.
With regard to Gilly, we have a very specific roadmap on Gilly. We are making good progress against
that. I think at this point we are not ready to give specifics on when we would start increasing
the store count in a more significant way.
Operator
Erika Maschmeyer, Robert W. Baird.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Erika Maschmeyer Robert W. Baird Analyst
Thanks so much and congratulations. Could you talk a little bit more about your ability to [send]
the products in the fall-winter, and the actions that you are taking to chase to a greater degree
than you had been?
Then just a quick follow-up on the increase in your number of store closures. I guess, what were
the factors around that? Are you still are the stores that you are closing still on average
about $1 million of volume and breaking even? Thanks.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Let me respond to the first part of the question. This organization is very good at chasing
product; has always been.
I dont think we have chased enough in the past. We have a concerted effort now to do more chasing.
We are reserving more dollars for what we are calling chase, and it is working out very well.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
With regard to store closures, obviously it is a fairly modest increase from where we had
previously been. It just reflects our continual or continued sifting through all those lease
expirations at the end of this year.
It skews heavily towards A&F and kids. Again, in terms of volume that $1 million average store
volume for those stores is probably still a reasonable estimate.
Operator
Evren Kopelman, Wells Fargo.
Evren Kopelman Wells Fargo Securities Analyst
Great. Thank you, good morning. In the second quarter, the 150 basis points in gross margin, can
you quantify the basis points of benefit from the international mix, and if you think that would be
higher in the back half?
And also if you expect more gross margin pressure in the third quarter compared to the fourth,
because the pricing doesnt really start as much in August. Thank you.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Hey, Evren. We havent broken out that gross margin effect from international versus domestic. I
mean it is certainly one of the things that we are looking at, as we have spoken to in the past,
how we give metrics that enable people to model the different components of the business. But to
this point we have not done that.
I dont think we can break out Q3 and Q4 at this point. Our outlook was for the season. As you know
things like the markdown reserve at the end of the quarter within a season can have an effect on
the gross margin rate for the two quarters within the season.
With regard to whether the international effect is going to be higher in the back half of the year,
it should be because obviously we have more stores opening in the back half of the year. But I
dont think I can give you any more specifics on that.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Operator
Jennifer Black, Jennifer Black & Associates.
Carla White Good morning. This is Carla White standing in for Jennifer Black. Let me add my
congratulations on a great quarter.
I just wanted to talk about your new denim launch. It appears to us that you are taking a huge
market share and that the denim launch was very successful. Can you talk about any planned
promotions on denim that youd have for the balance of the year?
Then also can you talk to how your yoga line is doing? Can we expect to see any line extensions off
of that? Thank you.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
We cant comment on what we are going to be doing promotionally. I cant even comment on the denim
promotion. I cannot tell you that it is successful or not; but we will see when the quarter is
over.
Yoga? I cant comment on that either. Im sorry, Carla. But thank you for the questions.
Operator
Jeff Black, Citi.
Jeff Black Jennifer Black & Associates Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys. So Mike, you opened with comments on Europe, that the business in
aggregate is doing good, which would imply some better, some worse. What is really happening across
the region? Are there real differences in Italy, London, Germany that you can glean?
And in terms of Hollister and what you have opened there, any learning on what works better or what
doesnt work as well? Thanks.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
I think the answer is that Hollister is working every place that we have opened it. We do not have
an unsuccessful store.
I believe we said in aggregate across Europe it is meeting plan. But I dont I am trying to
think of a store that is under plan, but I dont want to be held to that. They are all very
successful.
I think the point of Hollister is that we think it is a brand that operates well in a mall
environment in many countries. That is what is being proven.
We know that in Europe. We dont know that in Asia. That is why opening in Hong Kong is going to be
interesting for us, and China.
Operator
Eric Beder, Brean Murray.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Eric Beder Brean Murray Analyst
Good morning. Congratulations on a solid quarter. Lets talk a little bit longer-term with
international. You are at almost 25% of your sales are international. Where do you see that going
in the next two to three years in terms of percentages?
Could you talk a little bit about the US tourist-driven stores? How is their performance different
from the rest of the US stores? Thank you.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Eric, on the first point we had said at the investor day back in April that we foresaw that
international would be roughly half of the business in 2015, based on the plans we talked about for
Hollister and A&F international openings.
With regard to the US tourist stores, I think Mike said earlier they continue to perform well. We
dont specifically break that out relative to the other US stores. But they have continued to do
well.
Operator
John Morris, Banc of Montreal.
John Morris BMO Capital Markets Analyst
Hi, good morning. My congratulations on a great quarter too, and a great start to back-to-school.
Most of the questions have been asked, but I think regarding the Canadian comments, I think you
said Canada was a little bit weaker.
What do you think that is from where you stand now? I think you said that you had plans to address
it; so if you can share some of those thoughts, and just let us know what the mix of business for
Canada is now.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Well, John, I think we are digging into Canada. We are not going to be too public about what we
think is going on. The exchange rate has probably had some impact in terms of making the
differential between the AUR in Canada and the US look greater, and that is probably part of it.
As we said, our margins in Canada remain pretty strong, so it is not a profitability issue. But the
top line has been under some pressure in Canada. I dont think we want to go into detail about what
we are doing to address it, but we think we have a clear path to getting that fixed.
Operator
Omar Saad, ISI Group.
Omar Saad ISI Group Analyst
Thanks, good morning. Good execution this quarter. I wanted to follow up on Japan, if you could
talk about the negative comps you continue to see there, what you think is going on in that
marketplace.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Does it color your view on Asia and how the brand should be positioned in other parts of Asia? Or
do you really feel that Japan is a unique situation? Any macro versus Company-specific issues in
Japan, too? Thank you.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
First answer is that we dont believe Japan represents Asia. We will find that out, because we will
be in other Asian countries very soon. We think it is a Japanese situation.
We think clearly their macroeconomic issues, and an aging population, and a young population that
is very infatuated with fast fashion today we understand that. We cannot run a business in Japan
that is appreciably different than the rest of the world, nor will we. But we are looking at the
situation in Japan just as hard as we possibly can.
But I think the real answer is not to believe that Japan equals Asia. We dont.
Operator
John Kernan, Cowen and Company.
John Kernan Cowen and Company Analyst
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Quickly on the CapEx guidance, what drove it to the high
end of your previous range, to $350 million from $300 million to $350 million? Are you seeing
higher store build-out costs, or what changed the thinking there?
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
I think we were at $350 million on the last earnings call, John, was our guidance. We had started
the year lower, you are right.
FX was part of the increase, and then I think is firming up some of the store plans was the other
piece of it, some additional IT investments. It was a few different pieces rather than one major
piece. But FX was certainly a meaningful piece of it relative to the original figure we gave.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Is no one going to ask about The Situation?
Operator
Pamela Quintiliano, Oppenheimer.
Pamela Quintiliano Oppenheimer Analyst
Well I am going to ask about (multiple speakers). I am not going to ask about The Situation. I am
not going to ask about August.
But I am just trying to figure out you made the comment about a little bit more heightened
concerns about a double-dip recession over the past few months. So clearly you guys have been the
leader, early, aggressive about getting out there with
the promotions and, I think, stealing market share from other guys. But have you been able to
adjust your orders and promotions reflecting that heightened concern regarding the double-dip?
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
And when you think about the customer core customer in each of your divisions domestically, do you
think they respond to the promotions in the same way currently? Or are they as sensitive, the
Hollister versus Abercrombie?
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
I really dont want to talk about the promotions in the business. Jonathan?
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Are you sure you dont want to ask about The Situation?
Pamela Quintiliano Oppenheimer Analyst
If I get a second question, lets ask about The Situation.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
So, although we still [cant] comment. I mean, I dont think we are saying anything about the
economy that is any different to anybody else. It is something that everyone is obviously more
mindful of today than they were in the past.
I dont think we can really speak to any specific things we are doing differently. And frankly, as
we said earlier, we certainly are monitoring the situation but we remain focused on the long-term
execution of our strategy. And for all the reasons Mike described earlier, we feel we are well
positioned to accomplish that.
Operator
Adrienne Tennant, Janney Capital Markets.
Adrienne Tennant Janney Capital Analyst
Good morning, Mike and Jonathan. Mike, would you please tell us the back story on the whole
Situation? That would be my first question. Because I am really curious.
Then my second one really is for Jonathan. Cotton obviously is coming down. I am not going to ask
you about cost increases. But at the current level of $1, $1.03, at what point would we start to
see beneficial tailwind in the financials. Like, plus nine months, assuming that it crosses
sometime in November? So would that put us in the back half, mid to back half of 2012
theoretically? Thank you.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Okay, I think I can respond to the first part of your question, and this is how it started. Last
Friday morning I was with a group of people here and someone came up and said Mike, I have
terrible, terrible news for you. Last night on Jersey Shore The Situation had A&F product on. So we
all said ah, that is terrible. What are we going to do about it?
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
The group came up with the solution. Lets pay them not to wear our product. That is how it
happened; that is where we are; and we are having a lot of fun with it. The second part of the
question?
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Adrienne, on the cotton I think we spoke to that earlier. We would see cotton specifically, if
things stayed where they are today, becoming a tailwind in the middle part of the second quarter of
next year.
Again, we got some very favorable costing in the first well, not very favorable; we got
favorable costing in the first quarter of this year before the cotton increases had really taken
effect, at least for us. Then it started to come in much more significantly in the second quarter
and through the back half of the year.
So if everything stayed the same today, then we would expect that to become a tailwind in the
middle of the second quarter of next year. But as I said earlier, there are still other
inflationary pressures which arent abating or turning, most notably labor costs.
Operator
Linda Tsai, ITG Investment Research.
Linda Tsai ITG Investment Research Analyst
Good morning. In your press release you mentioned a higher AUR (technical difficulty) international
mix benefit. Was the AUR positive for all the brands?
Then you also mentioned graphic tees being a little bit weaker across the brand. Was this an issue
of (technical difficulty)?
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
We can barely hear you, Linda.
Linda Tsai ITG Investment Research Analyst
Okay. Can you hear me better now? I was saying in your press release you mentioned a higher AUR and
international mix benefit. Was the AUR positive across the brands?
Then you also mentioned graphic tees (technical difficulty) little bit weaker. Was that an issue of
units or competitive (technical difficulty)?
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
On the AUR, Linda, what we said was that our AURs were up both domestically and internationally.
Internationally that is obviously on a constant currency basis. So overall we were up mid-single
digit for AUR. We dont break that out by brand, so there is not really anything additional I can
tell you on that piece.
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
I think your question about the graphic tees is a good one. We planned decreases in graphic tees
because we are consciously trying to push more fashion in the business and less reliance on logo.
And that is one of the thrilling things that is happening in the business; it is working.
Operator
Robin Murchison, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Robin Murchison SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Analyst
Thanks and good morning. I wanted to ask about your directionally, and I know it is very early,
but directionally about CapEx for the out year. Presumably, havent you come through a lot of the
larger flagship Abercrombie stores? So the forward stores might be somewhat smaller, a little less
costlier? Any cash flow info would help.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Hey, Robin. If you look in terms of total count, we have spoken in the investor day to the fact
that our rate of Hollister openings we would be looking to accelerate that further beyond the 2011
level; and then the level of flagship openings we were targeting for 12 would be higher than 11.
So I think taking into account those two factors, they would drive CapEx up beyond the 2011 level.
Other CapEx not related to stores would probably be less significant in terms of the year-over-year
change. To your point though, it is still very early in the process for 2012 CapEx; and we will
certainly be giving more detail and color on that at the end of the year.
Operator
Barbara Wyckoff, CLSA.
Barbara Wyckoff CLSA Analyst
Hi, everyone. Good job. Two questions. Are there going to be of the 34 Hollister stores that are
opening this fall, are any of those in Asia outside of Festival Walk? That is number one.
Then number two, Mike, looking back, if you could do over second quarter, what would you could
you have done better? I know it was a great quarter. But flow, inventory, classifications? Just
sort of thinking about how it played out. Thanks.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
Barbara, just on the first one. Yes, we do have other Hollister openings in Mainland China which we
spoke to earlier on, which are part of the count of close to 40 for the year.
Barbara Wyckoff CLSA Analyst
How many?
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Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
We havent given that number, but it is a couple.
Barbara Wyckoff CLSA Analyst
Okay, thanks.
Operator
David Weiner, Deutsche Bank.
David Weiner Deutsche Bank Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Two quick questions. So number one, on international mall rents, just
curious. We have heard that sequentially over the last couple quarters the rents are starting to
tick up after being down for a while. If you could just talk about relative to your $4.75 plan, if
what you are seeing in the mall rent trends into next year internationally is in line with what you
thought. That was really my only question. Thanks.
Jonathan Ramsden Abercrombie & Fitch Co. EVP & CFO
I guess with regard to rent, it all comes back to how we look at each of these deals
internationally; and ultimately it all comes back to that target overall margin of 30% for
Hollister and typically a little bit higher for A&F that we are shooting for. So we look at the
overall economics of the deal; the CapEx we have to spend to build the store; the rent. And if we
feel we can get that acceptable overall return, then we typically go forward with the store.
I cant really speak to what is happening with individual rents. But we are obviously looking at
each deal on a deal-by-deal basis and making sure it meets our criteria.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
I would have to add that with our success in Europe we are a very much in demand tenant.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude todays question-and-answer session and concludes todays
conference. Thank you for your participation.
Mike Jeffries Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Chairman & CEO
Thank you.
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FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 17. 2011 / 12:30PM, ANF Q2 2011 Abercrombie & Fitch Co Earnings Conference Call
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