Reserves for Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2018

Reserves for Losses and Loss Settlement Expenses

RESERVES FOR LOSSES AND LOSS SETTLEMENT EXPENSES

Property insurance indemnifies an insured with an interest in physical property for loss of, or damage to, such property or the loss of its income-producing abilities. Casualty insurance primarily covers liability for damage to property of, or injury to, a person or entity other than the insured. In most cases, casualty insurance also obligates the insurance company to provide a defense for the insured in litigation, arising out of events covered by the policy.

Liabilities for losses and loss settlement expenses reflect management's best estimates at a given point in time of what we expect to pay for claims that have been reported and those that have been incurred but not reported ("IBNR"), based on known facts, circumstances, and historical trends. Because property and casualty insurance reserves are estimates of the unpaid portions of incurred losses that have been reported to us, as well as losses that have been incurred but not reported, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses and related loss settlement expenses may vary materially from recorded amounts. We regularly update our reserve estimates as new information becomes available and as events unfold that may affect the resolution of unsettled claims. Changes in prior year reserve estimates, which may be material, are reported as a component of losses and loss settlement expenses incurred in the period such changes are determined.

The determination of reserves (particularly those relating to liability lines of insurance that have relatively longer lag in claim reporting) requires significant work to reasonably project expected future claim reporting and payment patterns. If, during the course of our regular monitoring of reserves, we determine that coverages previously written are incurring higher than expected losses, we will take action that may include, among other things, increasing the related reserves. Any adjustments we make to reserves are reflected in operating results in the year in which we make those adjustments. We engage an independent actuary, Regnier Consulting Group, Inc., to render an opinion as to the reasonableness of our statutory reserves annually. The actuarial opinion is filed in those states where we are licensed.

On a quarterly basis, UFG's internal actuary performs a detailed actuarial review of IBNR reserves. This review includes a comparison of results from the most recent analysis of reserves completed by both our internal and external actuaries. Senior management meets with our internal actuary to review, on a regular and quarterly basis, the adequacy of carried reserves based on results from this actuarial analysis. There are two fundamental types or sources of IBNR reserves. We record IBNR reserves for "normal" types of claims and also specific IBNR reserves related to unique circumstances or events. A major hurricane is an example of an event that might necessitate establishing specific IBNR reserves because an analysis of existing historical data would not provide an appropriate estimate.

We do not discount loss reserves based on the time value of money.

The following table provides an analysis of changes in our property and casualty losses and loss settlement expense reserves at September 30, 2018 and December 31, 2017 (net of reinsurance amounts):




	September 30, 2018			December 31, 2017
Gross liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at beginning of year	$	1,224,183		$	1,123,896
Ceded losses and loss settlement expenses	(59,871		)	(59,794		)
Net liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at beginning of year	$	1,164,312		$	1,064,102
Losses and loss settlement expenses incurred for claims occurring during
Current year	$	575,214		$	779,966
Prior years	(47,673		)	(54,253		)
Total incurred	$	527,541		$	725,713
Losses and loss settlement expense payments for claims occurring during
Current year	$	212,138		$	311,972
Prior years	263,552			313,531
Total paid	$	475,690		$	625,503
Net liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at end of year	$	1,216,163		$	1,164,312
Ceded loss and loss settlement expenses	61,914			59,871
Gross liability for losses and loss settlement expenses at end of period	$	1,278,077		$	1,224,183

There are a multitude of factors that can impact loss reserve development. Those factors include, but are not limited to: historical data, the potential impact of various loss reserve development factors and trends including historical loss experience, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, experience with alternative dispute resolution, results of our medical bill review process, the potential impact of salvage and subrogation and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. All of these factors influence our estimates of required reserves and for long tail lines these factors can change over the course of the settlement of the claim. However, there is no precise method for evaluating the specific monetary impact of any individual factor on the development of reserves.

For the three-month period ended September 30, 2018 the majority of unfavorable development came from two lines, commercial liability and commercial automobile with a partial offset coming from favorable development for the three lines of reinsurance assumed, workers compensation and fidelity and surety. All other lines combined contributed a relatively minimal amount of overall unfavorable development during this three-month period. The unfavorable development for the quarter is attributable to the combination of latent emergence of commercial automobile claims that increased sufficiently to also generate an umbrella liability claim combined with a very large but independent general liability claim. For the nine-month period ended September 30, 2018 the majority of favorable development came from four lines: workers compensation, commercial automobile, commercial liability, and reinsurance assumed. Each of the other individual lines also contributed favorable development during this nine-month period (none were unfavorable).

The significant drivers of the favorable reserve development in 2017 were our commercial liability and workers compensation lines of business. Much of the favorable commercial other liability development came from loss adjustment expense and is attributed to our continued litigation management efforts combined with some favorable development coming from decreases in reserves, which were more than sufficient to pay claims as they closed. Workers compensation favorable development was due to the combined effects of decreases in claim reserves along with favorable changes affecting loss adjustment expense. Our personal lines also contributed favorable development. The lines that experienced adverse development during the year, which partially offset the favorable development mentioned earlier, were assumed reinsurance and commercial automobile. The adverse development for assumed reinsurance is due to increases in prior year reserves for unpaid claims while the adverse development for commercial automobile is due to paid losses which were greater than reductions in reported loss reserves and

reserves for claims incurred but not reported. No other single line of business contributed a significant portion of the total development.

Generally, we base reserves for each claim on the estimated ultimate exposure for that claim. We believe that it is appropriate and reasonable to establish a best estimate for reserves within a range of reasonable estimates, especially when we are reserving for claims for bodily injury, disabilities and similar claims, for which settlements and verdicts can vary widely. Our reserving philosophy may result in favorable reserve development in future years that will decrease losses and loss settlement expenses for prior year claims in the year of adjustment. We realize that this philosophy, coupled with what we believe to be aggressive and successful claims management and loss settlement practices, has resulted in year-to-year redundancies in reserves. We believe our approach produces recorded reserves that are reasonably consistent as to their relative position within a range of reasonable reserves from year-to-year. However, conditions and trends that have affected the reserve development for a given year do change. Therefore, such development cannot be used to project future reserve redundancies or deficiencies.

We are not aware of any significant contingent liabilities related to environmental issues. Because of the type of property coverage we write, we have potential exposure to environmental pollution, mold and asbestos claims. Our underwriters are aware of these exposures and use riders or endorsements to limit exposure.