EX-99 2 ex9900.htm AGA FINANCIAL FORUM PRESENATION MAY 17 AND MAY 18, 2010 ex9900.htm
PG&E

Corporation
®
AGA Financial Forum May 17-18, 2010
Chris Johns
President
Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Exhibit 99
 
 

 
2
2
This presentation contains management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2010 and 2011 earnings per share from operations, projections of Pacific Gas and
Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, construction work in progress (CWIP), rate base and rate base growth, and projections of PG&E
Corporation’s and the Utility’s financing needs. These statements and projections, as well as the underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements that
are based on current expectations which management believes are reasonable. These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to various risks
and uncertainties, the realization or resolution of which may be outside of management's control. Actual results may differ materially. Factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially include:
the Utility’s ability to manage capital expenditures and its operating and maintenance expenses within authorized levels
the outcome of pending and future regulatory proceedings and whether the Utility is able to timely recover its costs through rates;
the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and
 natural gas markets, including the ability of the Utility and its counterparties to post or return collateral;
explosions, fires, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, the disruption of information technology and systems, and similar events that can cause unplanned
 outages, reduce generating output, damage the Utility’s assets or operations, subject the Utility to third-party claims for property damage or personal injury,
 or result in the imposition of civil, criminal, or regulatory fines or penalties on the Utility;
the impact of storms, earthquakes, floods, drought, wildfires, disease and similar natural disasters, or acts of terrorism or vandalism, that affect customer
 demand, or that damage or disrupt the facilities, operations, or information technology and systems owned by the Utility, its customers, or third parties on
 which the Utility relies;
the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas businesses;
changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial
 market conditions, changes in technology, including the development of alternative technologies that enable customers to increase their reliance on self-
 generation, or other reasons;
the occurrence of unplanned outages at the Utility’s two nuclear generating units at Diablo Canyon, the availability of nuclear fuel, the outcome of the
 Utility’s application to renew the operating licenses for Diablo Canyon, and potential changes in laws or regulations with respect to the storage of spent
 nuclear fuel, security, safety or other matters associated with the operations at Diablo Canyon;
whether the Utility can maintain the cost savings it has recognized from operating efficiencies it has achieved and identify and successfully implement
 additional sustainable cost-saving measures;
whether the Utility earns incentive revenues or incurs obligations under incentive ratemaking mechanisms;
the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
whether the new wholesale electricity markets in California will continue to function effectively and whether the Utility can successfully implement “dynamic
 pricing” for its electricity customers;
how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incurs costs and liabilities in connection with litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from
 insurance, or from other third parties;
the ability of PG&E Corporation, the Utility, and counterparties to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner on acceptable terms;
the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass;
the outcome of federal or state tax audits and the impact of changes in federal or state tax laws, policies, or regulations; and
other factors and risks discussed in PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s 2009 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other reports filed with the Securities and
 Exchange Commission.
Cautionary Language Regarding
Forward-Looking Statements
 
 

 
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Vision & Values
 
 

 
4
PCG Investment Case
Excellent service at reasonable cost
Constructive regulatory environment
Investment in infrastructure-
providing solid, regulated growth
Clean generation and world-class energy
efficiency programs
Stable capital structure and return
Reliable, growing dividend
 
 

 
5
Regulatory Environment
Gas Transmission & Storage
Transmission Owner Case
General Rate Case
Key Regulatory Cases
 
 

 
6
2011 Gas Transmission and
Storage Rate Case
Sets revenue requirements, rates, terms and conditions for PG&E’s
Gas Transmission and Storage services for 2011 - 2014
Revenue Requirement Request: $529M
 $67M increase over 2010 revenue requirement
 $235M Capital Expenditures
Allows for upgrades to backbone transmission, local transmission,
and storage facilities, and maintenance of equipment
Proposed attrition mechanism similar to General Rate Case
 
    Final decision requested by Q4 2010
 
 

 
7
Sets revenue requirements for PG&E’s Electric Transmission
business in 2010-2011
 Original Revenue Requirement Request: $946 million
  $800M Capital Expenditures

 
 All-Party Settlement reached in March, 2010: $875 million
Adds additional transmission capacity and performance of
maintenance and replacement work on our substations
improving overall reliability of our system 
FERC TO12 Filing
 
 

 
8
2011 General Rate Case
Sets revenue requirements for Gas and Electric Distribution
and Electric Generation businesses for 2011 - 2013
Revenue Requirement Request: $6.7B
 $1.048 billion increase
 $2.7B average capital expenditures per year
Allows for necessary investments in energy infrastructure
to deliver energy safely and reliably to customers
Key capital projects will focus on:
  replacement of gas and electric systems that are at or near the end of their
  useful lives
  replacement of aging generation infrastructure, hydro relicensing
  requirements
  replacement of aging fleet, buildings and IT systems
 
 

 
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Filing includes a flexible attrition mechanism adjusting for:
  labor cost adjustments
  materials and services adjustments
  capital related adjustments
  other adjustments, such as changes in franchise, payroll or other taxes
Attrition revenues are currently forecasted to be $275M and
$343M in 2012 and 2013
Items not included in the 2011 GRC:
  SmartMeterTM and SmartMeterTM Upgrade programs
  PV Project, Cornerstone, Manzana, Diablo Relicensing
June - July
August
November
Hearings
Opening and
Reply Briefs
Proposed
Decision
New Rates
in Effect
Jan 1 2011
2011 General Rate Case
December
Final
Decision
 
 

 
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10
Capital Expenditure Outlook
Low Case $4.0B
Low Case $4.0B
High Case $4.6B
High Case $4.6B
Low Case $3.2B
Low Case $3.2B
High Case $5.3B
High Case $5.3B
2009
2010
2011
Low
High
$3.9B
Cap Ex Forecast ($B)
Cap Ex Forecast ($B)
Actual
Low
High
CapEx ranges have not been updated for recent developments in the Solar PV project.
 
 

 
11
Rate Base and CWIP
2009 Actual
2010
2011
Rate Base
Low Case $21.4B
High Case $21.3B
Rate Base
Low Case $21.4B
High Case $21.3B
Rate Base
Low Case $24.0B
High Case $24.4B
Rate Base
Low Case $24.0B
High Case $24.4B
Weighted Average Rate Base*
and Construction Work in Progress ($B)
Low
High
Low
High
Construction Work
In Progress (CWIP)
Construction Work
In Progress (CWIP)
$21.6
B
Rate Base + CWIP
Low Case $23.7B
High Case $23.6B
Rate Base + CWIP
Low Case $23.7B
High Case $23.6B
Rate Base
Rate Base
Rate Base + CWIP
Low Case $25.7B
High Case $26.7B
Rate Base + CWIP
Low Case $25.7B
High Case $26.7B
* Projected 2010-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that results from the second series of the
 Energy Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax balance associated with the Energy
 Recovery Bonds regulatory asset, multiplied by the Utility's equity ratio and by its equity return. This rate base offset carrying
 cost declines to zero when the taxes are fully paid in 2012.
Rate Base: $19.8B
Rate Base + CWIP: $21.6B
Rate Base: $19.8B
Rate Base + CWIP: $21.6B
Rate Base forecast ranges have not been updated for recent developments in the Solar PV project
 
 

 
12
2011
EPS Guidance
$3.85
$3.85
2008
Actual
2010
$2.95
$2.95
$3.65
$3.65
Low
Low
 High
 High
Low
Low
 High
 High
$3.50
$3.50
$3.35
$3.35
Earnings per Share from Operations*
Earnings per Share from Operations*
2009
Actual
$3.21
$3.21
* Reg G reconciliation to GAAP for 2008 and 2009 EPS from Operations, and 2010-2011 EPS Guidance
available in Appendix and at www.pge-corp.com
 
 

 
13
PG&E is sensitive to customer needs
 - Historic trend in prices
  - Current comparisons
  - Plan to restructure residential
  electric tiers
 
Excellent Service / Reasonable Cost
 
 

 
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$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
$0.22
CPI
Public Purpose Program & Other
Transmission & Distribution
Generation
Residential Avg. Electric Rate
 
 

 
15
Residential Avg. Gas Rate
Procurement includes: Gas Supply, Transport to CA Border, Backbone Transmission and Storage
Transportation includes: Distribution, Local Transmission, SmartMeter, Solar Programs and Balancing Accounts
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
CPI
Procurement
Transportation
 
 

 
16
Source: Edison Electric Institute, Statistical Yearbook, Year 2008
 
 

 
17
Source: American Gas Association, Gas Facts, Year 2008
 
 

 
18
Proposed Summer Rate Relief
 Reduce overall rates by $400M, about 3%, effective June 1, 2010
 Collapse Tiers 4 and 5 into one tier and substantially reduce the
 rates, and moderately increase Tier 3
 
 

 
19
GRC Phase 2 -
Residential Rate Design
 Collapse Tiers 3, 4 and 5 into a single Tier 3
 
 

 
20
PCG Investment Case
Excellent service at reasonable cost
Constructive regulatory environment
Investment in infrastructure-
providing solid, regulated growth
Clean generation and world-class energy
efficiency programs
Stable capital structure and return
Reliable, growing dividend
 
 

 
®
Appendix
 
 

 
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Key Regulatory Proceedings
 
 

 
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Cost of Capital
52% Equity Level · 11.35% ROE · Adjustment Mechanism
 Decided separately from General Rate Case
 Current terms in place until 2013
Triggers change to ROE if average Moody’s Utility (A or Baa) bond yield index over
 a 12 month period moves up or down by 100 basis points over benchmarks.
12 month period is October through the following September
 (i.e. October 2009 through September 2010).
Mechanism
 
 

 
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GUIDANCE REFLECTS:
Capital expenditures consistent with low and high case
ranges
Utility earns ROE of at least 11.35%
 
Ratemaking capital structure maintained at 52% equity
CEE incentives and tax cash flow consistent with high
and low case ranges
Resolution of FERC generator claims in 2011 results in
financing needs partially in 2011 (low case) or entirely in
2012 and beyond (high case)
Financial Assumptions: 2010-2011
 
 

 
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2009 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
(1) Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows investors to compare the
core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations.
(2) Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated net income as reported in accordance with GAAP.
(3) For the twelve months ended December 31, 2009, PG&E Corporation recognized $66 million, after-tax, for the interest and state tax
benefit associated with a federal tax refund, for 1998 and 1999.
(5) For the twelve months ended December 31, 2009, PG&E Corporation incurred $59 million, after-tax of costs to perform accelerated
system-wide natural gas integrity surveys and associated remedial work.
(4) For the twelve months ended December 31, 2009, PG&E Corporation recognized $28 million, after-tax, related to the CPUC's
authorization to recover costs previously incurred in connection with the Utility’s hydroelectric generation facilities.
(6) For the twelve months ended December 31, 2009, PG&E Corporation accrued $38 million, after-tax of severance costs related to the
elimination of approximately 2% percent of the Utility’s workforce.
 
 

 
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EPS Guidance - Reg G Reconciliation
(1) Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows investors to
 compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the
 normal course of operations.
(2) Items impacting comparability reconcile earnings from operations with consolidated net income as reported in accordance with GAAP.
(3) Costs related to Proposition 16 - The Taxpayers' Right to Vote Act
(4) Reduction in the deferred tax asset corresponding to the loss of tax deductibility of Medicare Part D federal subsidies.