EX-99 2 ex99.htm IR PRESENTATION - SEPTEMBER 2-4, 2008 ex99.htm
PG&E Corporation
Christopher P. Johns
Senior Vice President and CFO
Lehman Brothers
CEO Energy/Power Conference
September 2 - 4, 2008
New York City
This presentation is not complete without the accompanying statements made by management on September 3, 2008.
A replay is available on PG&E Corporation’s homepage at www.pge-corp.com.
 
 

 
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2008 and 2009 earnings per share from operations,
targeted compound average growth rate for earnings per share from operations over the 2007-2011 outlook period, as well as management’s projections regarding
Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base growth. These statements are based on current expectations which
management believes are reasonable including that the Utility’s rate base averages $18.3 billion in 2008 and $20.4 billion in 2009, that the Utility earns at least its
authorized rate of return on equity, that the Utility’s ratemaking capital structure is maintained at 52 percent equity, and that the Utility is successful in implementing its
initiatives to become more efficient and reduce costs. Actual results may differ materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include:
 § the Utility’s ability to manage capital expenditures and operating costs within authorized levels and recover costs through rates in a timely manner;
 § the outcome of regulatory proceedings, including pending and future ratemaking proceedings at the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and
 the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission;
 § the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and
 natural gas markets;
 § the effect of weather, storms, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, other natural disasters, explosions, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, acts of
 terrorism, and other events or hazards on the Utility’s facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
 § the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas business;
 § changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial
 market conditions, changes in technology including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
 § operating performance of the Utility’s Diablo Canyon nuclear generating facilities (Diablo Canyon), the occurrence of unplanned outages at Diablo
 Canyon, or the temporary or permanent cessation of operations at Diablo Canyon;
 § whether the Utility can maintain the cost savings it has recognized from operating efficiencies it has achieved and identify and successfully implement
 additional sustainable cost-saving measures;
 § whether the Utility incurs substantial unanticipated expense to improve the safety and reliability of its electric and natural gas distribution systems;
 § whether the Utility achieves the CPUC’s energy efficiency targets and recognizes any incentives the Utility may earn in a timely manner;
 § the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
 § the impact of changing wholesale electric or gas market rules, including the California Independent System Operator’s new rules to restructure the
 California wholesale electricity market;
 § how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
 § the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incurs costs and liabilities in connection with litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from
 third parties, or through insurance recoveries;
 § the ability of PG&E Corporation and/or the Utility to access capital markets and other sources of credit in a timely manner on favorable terms;
 § the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
 § the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass;
 § the impact of changes in federal or state tax laws, policies or regulations; and
 § other risks and factors disclosed in PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other reports filed with the SEC.
Cautionary Language Regarding
Forward-Looking Statements
 
 

 
3
 Targeted 8% CAGR in EPS
 (2007 - 2011)
PCG: Investment Case
§ PCG offers competitive growth in a constructive
 regulatory environment with an attractive valuation:
 
 § $13 billion planned CapEx 2008-2011
 § 85% of CapEx approved
 § 11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
 § High-performing, low-carbon generation
 § Decoupled revenues
 § Sustainable dividend, growing in-line with EPS
 
 

 
4
Delivering on Financial Objectives
§ Invest in needed infrastructure
§ Ensure adequate liquidity
§ Meet EPS targets
§ Generate strong cash flow
 
 

 
5
EPS from Operations*
* Reg G reconciliation to GAAP for 2007 EPS from Operations, and 2008 and 2009 EPS Guidance available in Appendix and at
 www.pgecorp.com
Confirming EPS Guidance
§ EPS from Operations Guidance:
 
  
 § 2008 guidance of $2.90-$3.00 per share
 § 2009 guidance of $3.15-$3.25 per share
 § 8% targeted CAGR 2007-2011  
 
 

 
6
2007
Base
Forecast
Rate Base
Growth
(+9% to 10%)
Add’l CapEx
(+1% to 3%)
New Shares
(-3% to- 5%)
$2.70-
$2.80
8% CAGR
2007- 2011
8%
10%
6%
2007
Guidance
{
Range
% CAGR
2007-2011
 
 

 
7
$ MM
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
Projects not included in forecasts include: SmartMeterTM Upgrade, Cornerstone Improvement
Program, additional generation and gas pipeline investments, and BC Transmission
$3.7 B
$3.3 B
$3.0 B
$3.0 B
Capital Expenditure Outlook
 
 

 
8
* Projected 2008-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that primarily results from the second series of the Energy
 Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds regulatory
 asset, multiplied by the Utility's equity ratio and by its equity return. This rate base offset carrying cost declines to zero when the taxes are fully paid
 in 2012.
Weighted Average Annual Rate Base*
$18.3
$20.4
$22.1
$23.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
$ B
Rate Base Growth
 
 

 
9
(1) Pacific Gas and Electric Company issued $600 million of senior notes in March 2008
Financing Plan 2008-2011
Objective: Maintain strong investment grade ratings at Pacific Gas and Electric Company and
PG&E Corporation
  Strong financial profile that will support growth plan
  Ensure adequate liquidity
Pacific Gas and Electric Company Financings
  Maintain authorized capital structure with 48% debt/preferred and 52% equity components
  Additional(1) $4.5 - $5.1 billion of long-term debt projected through 2011, including reissuance
 $454 million of tax-exempt pollution control bonds by the end of 2008 and refinancing of $600
 million and $500 million of debt that matures in 2009 and 2011, respectively
  Total equity contribution of $1.1 - $1.7 billion by PG&E Corporation projected from 2008 through
 2011
PG&E Corporation Financings
  Estimate that PG&E Corporation partially funds equity contributions by issuing $100-$200
 million of common stock annually through internal programs (e.g. DRSPP and 401k)
  Balance of equity contributions funded through additional equity issuances and incremental
 parent debt
  Additional parent debt capacity: $300 - $500 million, depending on market conditions
 
 

 
10
10
Additional CapEx - Proposed Projects
Above 2008-2011 Base Forecast
§ SmartMeterTM  Program Upgrade
§ Cornerstone Improvement Program
§ Tesla Power Plant
§ British Columbia (“BC”) Electric Transmission Line
§ Pacific Connector LNG Pipeline
 
 

 
11
*  2008 to 2011 estimates are based on forecasted construction schedules and additional contracted resources
 2007 2008  2009  2010 2011  2012
1st meter
installed
11/06
Billing IT infrastructure
live 2Q 2007
Live AMI billing
12/07
SmartMeterTM
Upgrade Filing
12/07
Demand Response
Interval Billing Live
05/08
Upgrade technology
installation 4Q 08
Deployment (incl.upgrade)
complete 1Q 2012
SmartMeterTM Program Progress
§ Year-end 2008 target: 1.5 million meters installed
 - 950,000 meters currently installed
 - 750,000 meters being read electronically
 
 

 
12
SmartMeterTM Program Upgrade
§ Funding request of $572 MM
 - $463 MM additional capital
§ CPUC decision expected by year end
§ New capabilities
 - Integrated connect/disconnect switches
 - Solid state meter technology
 - Home area network gateway device
 
 

 
13
  PG&E seeking CPUC approval for a six-year program to
 improve reliability of our electric distribution system.
 § Enhances overall reliability of energy delivery
 § Increases grid flexibility to mitigate outages
 § Sets higher performance expectations as measured by a proposed
 set of metrics
 Proposed $2.3B / 6-year System upgrade
 § $800 MM capital from 2008-2011
 § $1.5 B capital beyond 2011
Cornerstone Improvement Program
 
 

 
14
Cornerstone Program Costs
$2.3 B total capital investment with revenue requirement true-up
$2.3 B total capital investment with revenue requirement true-up
 
 

 
15
Tesla Generating Station
§ Total Estimated Project Cost of $850MM
 § 560 MW capacity
 § Located in PG&E’s service territory
§ Currently awaiting CPUC approvals
 § Interim order pending
 § Final CPCN decision requested 1st Quarter 2009
 
 

 
16
Transmission Opportunities
 BC Transmission Line
 § Recovery of development costs approved by FERC
 § Working on multi-utility partnership for development of the project
 § $5 B forecasted in total capital costs, with PG&E’s share at 51% or greater
 Pacific Connector LNG Pipeline
 § $50 MM capital forecasted through 2011
 § $1B forecasted in total capital cost, with PG&E’s potential share at 33%
 § Granting of FERC certificate expected by mid-2009
 
 

 
17
Financial Assumptions 2008-2011
§ Capital expenditure base forecast reflects projects that
 are highly likely or already approved
§ CPUC authorized ROE is 11.35% and Utility earns at
 least 12% at FERC on projected rate base
§ Ratemaking capital structure maintained at 52% equity
§ Additional capital expenditures, CEE incentives, and
 operational efficiencies consistent with earnings targets
§ Resolution of FERC generator claims in 2009-2011
 results in financing needs
 
 

 
18
Key Financial Takeaways
§ Delivering on Near-term EPS Guidance and
 Targeted 8% CAGR
§ Investing in Attractive Rate Base Opportunities
§ Utilizing Operating Efficiencies, Incentive Earnings
 and Leverage Effectively
§ Delivering Strong Cash Flow and Liquidity
§ Sustaining a Comparable Dividend
 
 

 
19
 Targeted 8% CAGR in EPS
 (2007 -2011)
PCG: Investment Case
§ PCG offers competitive growth in a constructive
 regulatory environment with an attractive valuation:
 
 § $13 billion planned CapEx 2008-2011
 § 85% of CapEx approved
 § 11.45% weighted ROE on 52% equity
 § High-performing, low-carbon generation
 § Decoupled revenues
 § Sustainable dividend, growing in-line with EPS
 
 

 
Appendix
CEO Energy/Power Conference
September 2 - 4, 2008
 
 

 
21
PG&E SERVICE AREA
 IN CALIFORNIA
Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)
§ Provides energy to nearly 1 in 20 people in
 the U.S.
§ 70,000 square-mile service territory
§ Four main operational units:
 § Electric and gas distribution
 § Electric transmission
 § Gas transmission
 § Electric generation
§ Forward test-year general rate case with
 inflation increases
§ CPUC jurisdictional revenues decoupled
 from sales
§ Pass-through of electric and gas
 procurement costs
 
 

 
22
(1) Authorized revenues = operating costs + (rate of return x rate base)
 Rate base = net plant ± adjustments to approximate invested capital
Business Scope
 § Retail electricity and natural gas distribution service (construction, operations and
 maintenance)
 § Customer services (call centers, meter reading, billing)
 § 5.1 million electric and 4.3 million gas customer accounts
Primary Assets
 § $11.0 billion of rate base (2007 wtd. avg.)
Regulation
 § California state regulation (CPUC)
 § Cost of service ratemaking (1)
Electric And Gas Distribution
 
 

 
23
Midway
Los Banos
Moss Landing
Diablo Canyon
Gates
Dixon
Malin
Round Mt
Tesia
Vaca
Business Scope
 § Wholesale electric transmission services (construction,
 maintenance)
 § Operation by CA Independent System Operator
Primary Assets
 § $2.6 billion of rate base (2007 wtd. avg.)
Regulation
 § Federal regulation (FERC)
 § Cost of service ratemaking
 § Revenues vary with system load
Electric Transmission
 
 

 
24
Business Scope
 § Natural gas transportation, storage, parking and lending services
 § Customers: PG&E natural gas distribution and electric generation
  businesses, industrial customers, California electric generators
 
Primary Assets
 § $1.5 billion of rate base (2007 wtd. avg.)
Regulation
 § California state regulation (CPUC)
 § Incentive ratemaking framework (“Gas Accord”)
 § Revenues vary with throughput
Natural Gas Transmission
 
 

 
25
Business Scope
 § Electricity and ancillary services from owned and controlled resources
 § Energy procurement program
Primary Assets
 § $1.7 billion of rate base (2007 wtd. avg.)
 § Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant (2,240 MW)
 § Largest privately owned hydro system (3,896 MW)
 § Funded nuclear plant decommissioning trusts of $1.8 billion
Regulation
 § Cost of service ratemaking for utility-owned generation
 § Pass through of power procurement costs
Electric Procurement & Owned Generation
 
 

 
26
PG&E Corporation
LTD Debt Outstanding: $0.3 Bn
Credit Rating: Baa1(1)/NR
PG&E Energy Recovery Funding LLC
LTD Debt Outstanding: $1.8 Bn
Credit Rating: Aaa/AAA (2)
Pacific Gas and Electric Company
LTD Debt Outstanding: $8.1 Bn
Credit Rating: A3/BBB+ (1)
(1) Corporate Credit / Issuer rating
(2) Energy Recovery Bond rating
Financing Structure
PG&E Corporation currently has minimal amount of debt
 outstanding
  $280 million of convertible debt due in 2010
  $200 million bank credit facility, which has never been drawn
 upon
Pacific Gas and Electric Company has $8.1 billion of debt
 outstanding
  $7.9 billion of senior unsecured notes
  $1.2 billion of tax-exempt pollution control bonds
  $2.0 billion bank credit facility, which can be increased to $3.0
 billion and backstops $1.75 billion CP program
PG&E Energy Recovery Funding LLC
  Issued $2.7 billion of Energy Recovery Bonds (ERB) in 2005
  $1.8 billion of ERBs still outstanding at June 30, 2008
 
 

 
27
Issue
Size (MM)
Coupon
Issue Date
Maturity Date
Tax Status
Senior Notes
$600
3.60%
3/23/2004
3/1/2009
Taxable
Senior Notes
$500
4.20%
3/23/2004
3/1/2011
Taxable
Senior Notes
$1,000
4.80%
3/23/2004
3/1/2014
Taxable
Senior Notes
$3,000
6.05%
3/23/2004
3/1/2034
Taxable
Senior Notes
$700
5.80%
3/13/2007
3/1/2037
Taxable
Senior Notes
$500
5.625%
12/4/2007
11/30/2017
Taxable
Senior Notes
$200
5.625%
3/3/2008
11/30/2017
Taxable
Senior Notes
$400
6.35%
3/3/2008
2/15/2038
Taxable
PC1996 A
$200
5.35%
5/23/1996
12/1/2016
Tax-exempt (AMT)
PC1996 C
$200
Variable rate
5/23/1996
11/1/2026
Tax-exempt
PC1996 E
$165
 Variable rate
5/23/1996
11/1/2026
Tax-exempt
PC1996 F
$100
 Variable rate
5/23/1996
11/1/2026
Tax-exempt
PC1997 B
$149
 Variable rate
9/16/1997
11/1/2026
Tax-exempt (AMT)
PC2004 A-D
$345
4.75%
6/29/2004
12/1/2023
Tax-exempt (AMT)
AMT: Subject to alternative minimum tax
Pacific Gas and Electric Company
Long-Term Debt Portfolio
 
 

 
28
Issue
Size (MM)
Coupon
Issue Date
Maturity
Date
Conversion
Price
Shares
Convertible
Subordinated
Notes
$280
9.50%
6/25/2002
6/30/2010
$15.0873
18,558,059
 The convertible notes can be converted into PG&E Corporation common shares
 at the conversion price of $15.0873 per share at any time prior to the close of
 business on June 29, 2010
 Based upon the current stock price, management expects full conversion of the
 notes into common shares prior to the maturity date
PG&E Corporation
Long-Term Debt Portfolio
 
 

 
29
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
Senior Notes
PC Bonds
Convertible Notes
  Staggered debt maturities reduce refinancing risk
  Flexibility to issue benchmark tenors that match long-lived
 nature of assets
Long-Term Debt Maturity Schedule
 
 

 
30
 Metric
Expected Average
2008-2012
 S&P Business Profile
5
 Total Debt / Capitalization
54.3%
 FFO / Interest Coverage
5.2x
 FFO / Average Total Debt
23%
Financing Objective: Expect to maintain solid, investment grade credit metrics
 Ratings
S&P
Moody’s
Fitch
 Pacific Gas and Electric Company
     
 Senior Unsecured
 Short Term
BBB+
A2
A3
P2
A
F1
Financial Metrics
 
 

 
31
(1) PG&E Corporation and Pacific Gas and Electric Company
(2) Fixed-floating mix is 90.9% / 9.1% if $156 million of commercial paper outstanding on June 30, 2008 is included
Long-Term Debt Mix
82.7%
6.5%
7.4%
3.4%
Senior Notes
Tax-Exempt (Fixed)
Tax-Exempt (Floating)
Convertible Notes
Fixed-Floating Mix
(2)
92.6%
7.4%
Fixed
Floating
Debt Profile(1)
As of June 30, 2008
 
 

 
32
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
 investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
 reflect the normal course of operations.
EPS on an Earnings from Operations Basis
$2.78
Items Impacting Comparability
 0.00
EPS on a GAAP Basis
$2.78
2007
2007 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
 
 

 
33
2008
   
 
Low
High
EPS Guidance on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
Estimated Items Impacting Comparability
EPS Guidance on a GAAP Basis
$2.90
 0.00
$2.90
$3.00
 0.00
$3.00
   
2009
   
 
Low
High
EPS Guidance on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
Estimated Items Impacting Comparability
EPS Guidance on a GAAP Basis
$3.15
 0.00
$3.15
$3.25
 0.00
$3.25
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
 investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that
 do not reflect the normal course of operations.
Guidance Range
Guidance Range
EPS Guidance -Reg G Reconciliation