EX-99.1 2 ex9901.htm MERRILL LYNCH CONFERENCE-9/25-26, 2007 PPT ex9901.htm
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Exhibit 99.1
PG&E Corporation:  
     Opportunities in Renewable Energy
Peter Darbee, Chairman, CEO and President
Merrill Lynch Conference 
September 25-26, 2007
 
 

 
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2007 and 2008 earnings per share from operations, targeted average annual
growth rate for earnings per share from operations, as well as management’s projections regarding Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base
growth, future electricity resources, and potential investments in transmission, generation and renewable energy resources. These statements are based on current expectations and various
assumptions which management believes are reasonable, including that substantial capital investments are made in Utility business over the 2007-2011 period, Utility rate base averages $17
billion in 2007 and $18.7 billion in 2008, that the Utility earns at least its authorized rate of return on equity, and that the Utility’s ratemaking capital structure is maintained at 52 percent equity.
These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to various risks and uncertainties, the realization or resolution of which are outside of management's control. Actual results may
differ materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include:
Utility’s ability to timely recover costs through rates;
the outcome of regulatory proceedings, including ratemaking proceedings pending at the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission;
the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and natural gas markets;
the effect of weather, storms, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, other natural disasters, explosions, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, acts of terrorism, and other events or hazards
that could affect the Utility’s facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas business;
changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial market conditions, changes in
technology including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
operating performance of the Utility’s Diablo Canyon nuclear generating facilities (Diablo Canyon), the occurrence of unplanned outages at Diablo Canyon, or the temporary or
permanent cessation of operations at Diablo Canyon;
the ability of the Utility to recognize benefits from its initiatives to improve its business processes and customer service;
the ability of the Utility to timely complete its planned capital investment projects;
the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
the impact of changing wholesale electric or gas market rules, including the California Independent System Operator’s new rules to restructure the California wholesale electricity
market;
how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incur costs and liabilities in connection with pending litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from third parties, or through
insurance recoveries;
the ability of PG&E Corporation and/or the Utility to access capital markets and other sources of credit;
the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass, and
other risks and factors disclosed in PG&E Corporation’s SEC reports.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking
Information
 
 

 
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Key Takeaways From Today’s Discussion
PCG is a core utility holding delivering 1st quartile
earnings growth at low risk.
PG&E is aligned with regulators/policy leaders to
increase the supply of cost-effective renewable
generation.
Evolving renewables policy creates attractive
investment opportunities.
 
 

 
4
Agenda for Today
PG&E’s core investment strategy and upside earnings
outlook
PG&E’s position on renewable energy
-
Current position
-
Future investment opportunities
 
 

 
5
Investment Driver
Cap Ex
Notable Projects
Common Plant
~$1.3 Billion
Building Investment
Technology Infrastructure
General Use Fleet
Electric and Gas
Transmission
~$3.8 Billion
Central California Clean Energy Transmission
    Line ( formerly Midway-Gregg)
Line Upgrades for Renewables
McDonald Island Gas Storage Pipeline
Generation
~$2.9 Billion
Gateway Generating Station
Humboldt Power Plant
Colusa Power Plant
DCPP Steam Generator Replacement
Distribution
~$6.2 Billion
Distribution maintenance and upgrades
New Customer Connections
AMI
2007-2011 Estimated CapEx totals more than $14 B (~$2.8 B/yr.)
Capital Expenditures Drive Core Growth
 
 

 
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* Reg G reconciliation to GAAP for 2006 EPS from Operations and 2007 and 2008
EPS Guidance available in Appendix and at www.pgecorp.com
EPS from Operations*
EPS Guidance
EPS from Operations*:    2007 guidance of $2.70-$2.80 per share
2008 guidance of $2.90-$3.00 per share
 
     8%   
 
 

 
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Additional Investment Opportunities Provide Upside
Proposed Pacific Connector Gas Pipeline (PCGP)
-­
1.0 -1.5 Bcf/d, 230 mile LNG pipeline
-­
$1.1 B (33% PG&E share)
2006 Long Term Procurement Plan
-­
Up to 2,300 MW proposed post-2011
Potential BC Renewables Transmission Project
-­
$14 M approved to study feasibility
-­
Coordination between BC, WA, OR, CA
-­
Q1 2008 - Report to CPUC
PG&E Owned Renewables
 
 

 
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Biomass Energy
Wind Energy
Small Hydropower (<30MW)
Geothermal Energy
RPS Eligible Renewable Resources - Traditional
 
 

 
9
Biogas
Ocean Power
Central Solar Energy
~
Eligible Renewables - Emerging
 
 

 
10
Year
Signed
Project
Max
GWh/yr
Technology
Pre
2002
Various Projects
~7500 1
Various
2002
Calpine Geysers 13 & 20
722
Geothermal
2002
Wheelabrator #4
25
Biomass
2003
CBEA Projects (3)
305
Biomass
2004
Big Valley Lumber
41
Biomass
2004
Diablo Winds
65
Wind
2005
FPL Energy-Montezuma Winds
102
Wind
2005
Buena Vista Energy LLC
108
Wind
2005
Pacific Renewable Energy
280
Wind
2005
Shiloh 1 Wind Project LLC
225
Wind
2006
Military Pass Rd.
840
Geothermal
2006
HFI Silvan
142
Biomass
2006
Liberty Biofuels
70
Biofuels
2006
Bottle Rock USRG
385
Geothermal
2006
IAE Truckhaven
366
Geothermal
2006
Global Common - Chowchilla
72
Biomass
Year
Signed
Project
Max
GWh/yr
Technology
2006
Global Common - El Nido
72
Biomass
2006
Newberry
840
Geothermal
2006
Calpine Geysers
922
Geothermal
2006
Tunnel Hydro
2.1
Hydro
2006
Buckeye Hydro
1.4
Hydro
2006
Eden Vale Dairy
1.3
Biogas
2006
Microgy
TBD
Biogas
2006
Bio_Energy LLC
TBD
Biogas
2006
Palco
36
Biomass
2007
Solel
1388
Solar
Thermal
2007
Western GeoPower
212
Geothermal
2007
PPM-Klondike
265
Wind
2007
CalRenew
9
PV
2007
Green Volts
5
PV
18% of Projected 2010 Load Currently Signed*
*Based on contracts signed through August 2007
1) Average delivered energy over multiple years: pre-RPS baseline
PG&E’s Renewable Contracts Signed
 
 

 
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Year
18%
15%
12%
19%
Expected Deliveries From Contracts
20%
20%
Renewable Portfolio Standard target is 20% by 2010*
* See Appendix for further description of RPS requirements
PG&E’s RPS Compliance Outlook
 
 

 
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Challenges to Meeting RPS Goal
Increasing competition for renewables projects from other
states/countries/utilities
Many renewable resources are located in areas requiring either
new transmission or transmission upgrades
Uncertain whether contracts will perform as projected
System integration of intermittent resources becomes more
challenging at higher volumes
 
 

 
13
Wind
 
Transmission Line
Project
Renewable Resources
1
Central California Clean
Energy Transmission
(previously Midway-Gregg)
Resources to the south
2
Vaca Dixon - Contra Costa
Upgrade
Solano County wind resources
3
California - Oregon
Upgrade
Renewable resources from the
Pacific Northwest
4
B.C. Renewable Line
(possible)
Proposed to bring British Columbia
renewable resource energy to
California
4
1
3
2
Bioenergy
Ocean
Solar
Geothermal
Geothermal
Geothermal
Small Hydro
Wind
Wind
Wind
New Transmission Investment is Necessary
 
 

 
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Increasing opportunities for utilities in renewable development
Renewable Investment Landscape 
Renewable Provisions in Federal Energy Bill
-
PTC (Wind, Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Solid Waste)
-
ITC (Solar, Geothermal, Distributed Generation)
-
Federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)
PG&E’s 2007/2008 solicitation open to offers for utility
ownership
CPUC provides incentive ROE on utility-owned renewables
 
 

 
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PG&E Investment Opportunities 
PG&E is in the early stages of feasibility analysis
Includes system-wide survey of land holdings and
assets for renewable potential
Technologies include wind, solar and small hydro
 
 

 
16
PCG  Value Summary
PG&E is a core holding, delivering strong
investment opportunities and low risk.
Renewables and related transmission investments
provide potential earnings “upsides” in 2008 and
beyond which are not currently included in long-term
guidance.
 
 

 
17
Appendix 
 
 

 
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Business Unit
2006 Rate
Base ($B)
Regulation
Electric and gas distribution
$10.3
CPUC
Electric generation
$1.8
CPUC
Gas transmission
$1.5
CPUC
Electric transmission
$2.3
FERC
PCG Total Business
$15.9
85% CPUC/15% FERC
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
$12.5 B in Revenues
$34.8 B in Assets
5.1 MM Electric/4.2 MM Gas Customers
$16 B+ Market Capitalization
 
 

 
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Projected Capital Expenditures ($MM)
Common Plant
Gas Trans.
Electric Trans.
Generation
Distribution
Chart Key
0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$3,200
 $3,200
$2,500
$3,100
$2,200
Capital Expenditure Outlook
 
 

 
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* Projected 2007-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that primarily results from
the second series of the Energy Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred tax
balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds regulatory asset, multiplied by the utility's equity ratio and by its
equity return. The carrying cost credit declines to zero when the taxes are fully paid in 2012.
Rate Base Growth
 
 

 
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2006
 
EPS on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
$2.57
Items Impacting Comparability:
 
Scheduling Coordinator Cost Recovery
Environmental Remediation Liability
Recovery of Interest on PX Liability
Severance Costs
EPS on a GAAP Basis
 0.21
(0.05)
 0.08
(0.05)
$2.76
*
Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used
because it allows investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to
another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations
2006 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
 
 

 
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2007
EPS Guidance on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
Estimated Items Impacting Comparability
EPS Guidance on a GAAP Basis
Low
$2.70
 0.00
$2.70
High
$2.80
 0.00
$2.80
2008
EPS Guidance on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
Estimated Items Impacting Comparability
EPS Guidance on a GAAP Basis
Low
$2.90
 0.00
$2.90
High
$3.00
 0.00
$3.00
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure.  This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
reflect the normal course of operations.
EPS Guidance - Reg G Reconciliation
 
 

 
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Consensus of analyst estimates of EPS growth:
Source:  Thomson IBIS long-term EPS Growth Consensus Estimate Median May 8, 2007
EPS Growth - Comparator Group 
EPS from operations annual growth targeted to average 8% for
2007 - 2011
 
 

 
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Mandate
Deliveries of 20% of load from eligible renewables by
    2010. Large hydro (>30 MW) doesn’t qualify.
Purpose
Fuel Diversity
GHG Reduction
Economic Development
Penalty
$50/MWhr, up to $25 million per year
Exceptions
1)
Contract failure
2)
Insufficient public goods funds
3)
Insufficient offers
4)
Lack of transmission
Flexible Compliance
Allows shortfalls to be made up within following three
     years.
   
   
California’s RPS Program
 
 

 
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RPS Procurement Process
PG&E conducts annual renewable RFOs, targeting 1 - 2% increases in
supply
Projects are evaluated on:
§
Market value
§
Creditworthiness
§
Transmission availability
§
Portfolio fit
§
Commercial and technical feasibility
Bilateral contracts allow PG&E to negotiate unique renewable
opportunities outside the RFO process. Projects are evaluated against the
same metrics.
PG&E continually examines new opportunities for utility ownership both via
the RFO process and outside it.
 
 

 
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Illustrative Energy Procurement Costs
 
 

 
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*  Over  20% of total retail sales expected to be eligible renewable resources coming from
utility-owned, QFs, Irrigation Districts, and other sources.
**  May include utility-owned resources.
* Approximately 13% of total retail sales expected to be eligible renewable resources 
coming from utility-owned, QFs, Irrigation Districts and other sources.
2007 Projected Sources of Energy
85,500 GWh
2012 Projected Sources of Energy
89,900 GWh
Energy efficiency expected to meet half of future load growth
Growth in renewable resources and resources with operating flexibility
Growth in utility ownership
Long-Term Electricity Resources