EX-99 2 ex99.htm CPJOHNS PPT PRESENTATION BANK OF AMERICA ex99.htm
1
Exhibit 99
PG&E Corporation:  
     Preparing For the Future
Christopher P. Johns, CFO
Bank of America
Third Annual Utilities Mini-Conference
June 26, 2007, Los Angeles, CA
 
 

 
2
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking
Information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding management’s guidance for PG&E Corporation’s 2007 and 2008 earnings per
share from operations, targeted average annual growth rate for earnings per share from operations, anticipated dividend growth, as well as
management’s projections regarding Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s (Utility) capital expenditures, rate base and rate base growth, future
electricity resources, and energy efficiency funding levels. These statements are based on current expectations and various assumptions which
management believes are reasonable, including that substantial capital investments are made in Utility business over the 2007-2011 period,
Utility rate base averages $17 billion in 2007 and $18.7 billion in 2008, that the Utility earns at least its authorized rate of return on equity, and
that the Utility’s ratemaking capital structure is maintained at 52 percent equity. These statements and assumptions are necessarily subject to
various risks and uncertainties, the realization or resolution of which are outside of management's control. Actual results may differ materially.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include:
§
Utility’s ability to timely recover costs through rates;
§
the outcome of regulatory proceedings, including ratemaking proceedings pending at the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission;
§
the adequacy and price of electricity and natural gas supplies, and the ability of the Utility to manage and respond to the volatility of the electricity and natural gas markets;
§
the effect of weather, storms, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, other natural disasters, explosions, accidents, mechanical breakdowns, acts of terrorism, and other events or hazards that
could affect the Utility's facilities and operations, its customers, and third parties on which the Utility relies;
§
the potential impacts of climate change on the Utility’s electricity and natural gas business;
§
changes in customer demand for electricity and natural gas resulting from unanticipated population growth or decline, general economic and financial market conditions, changes in
technology including the development of alternative energy sources, or other reasons;
§
operating performance of the Utility’s Diablo Canyon nuclear generating facilities (Diablo Canyon), the occurrence of unplanned outages at Diablo Canyon, or the temporary or
permanent cessation of operations at Diablo Canyon;
§
the ability of the Utility to recognize benefits from its initiatives to improve its business processes and customer service;
§
the ability of the Utility to timely complete its planned capital investment projects;
§
the impact of changes in federal or state laws, or their interpretation, on energy policy and the regulation of utilities and their holding companies;
§
the impact of changing wholesale electric or gas market rules, including the California Independent System Operator’s new rules to restructure the California wholesale electricity market;
§
how the CPUC administers the conditions imposed on PG&E Corporation when it became the Utility’s holding company;
§
the extent to which PG&E Corporation or the Utility incur costs and liabilities in connection with pending litigation that are not recoverable through rates, from third parties, or through
insurance recoveries;
§
the ability of PG&E Corporation and/or the Utility to access capital markets and other sources of credit;
§
the impact of environmental laws and regulations and the costs of compliance and remediation;
§
the effect of municipalization, direct access, community choice aggregation, or other forms of bypass, and
§
other risks and factors disclosed in PG&E Corporation’s and Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s SEC reports.
 
 

 
3
PCG is a core utility holding, delivering strong investment
opportunities and low regulatory risk.
Potential earnings “upsides” in 2008 and beyond are not
included in guidance.
Emerging growth strategies present additional business
opportunities.
Key Takeaways From Today’s Discussion
 
 

 
4
Business Unit
2006 Rate
Base ($B)
Regulation
Electric and gas distribution
$10.3
CPUC
Electric generation
$1.8
CPUC
Gas transmission
$1.5
CPUC
Electric transmission
$2.3
FERC
PCG Total Business
$15.9
85% CPUC/15% FERC
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
$12.5 B in Revenues
$34.8 B in Assets
5.1 MM Electric/4.2 MM Gas Customers
$18 B+ Market Capitalization
 
 

 
5
We act with integrity and communicate honestly and openly.
We are passionate about meeting our customers’ needs
and delivering for our shareholders.
We are accountable for all of our own actions: these include
safety, protecting the environment, and supporting our communities.
We work together as a team and are committed to excellence and innovation.
We respect each other and celebrate our diversity.
The
leading
utility in the
 United States
Delighted    Energized    Rewarded
   customers  employees  shareholders
Our values
Operational excellence
Transformation
Our strategies
Our goals
Our vision
PG&E Vision
 
 
 

 
6
Our Business Strategy
Competitive customer focus
Operational excellence
Regulatory alignment
Environmental leadership
Community involvement
 
 

 
7
Regulated Business Drivers
Statewide Energy Strategy
-  California Energy Action Plan
-  Renewable Portfolio Standard
-  AB32 Greenhouse Gas Legislation 
Constructive Regulatory Environment
-  Decoupling/Balancing Account Treatment
-  Purchased Power and Fuel Costs Pass-Through 
-  Pre-Approved CapEx
 
 

 
8
Core Business Investment Opportunities
Electric and gas distribution
Electric transmission
-   System reliability
-   Growth to reach renewable resources
Natural gas transmission and storage
Electric resource requirements
-   Energy efficiency
-   Renewables
-   Conventional generation
 
 

 
9
Capital Expenditures ($MM)
Common Plant
Gas Trans.
Electric Trans.
Generation
Distribution
Chart Key
0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$3,200
$3,200
$2,500
$3,100
$2,200
Capital Expenditure Outlook
 
 

 
10
* Projected 2007-2011 rate base is not adjusted for the impact of the carrying cost credit that primarily results from
the second series of the Energy Recovery Bonds. Earnings will be reduced by an amount equal to the deferred
tax balance associated with the Energy Recovery Bonds regulatory asset, multiplied by the utility's equity ratio and
by its equity return. The carrying cost credit declines to zero when the taxes are fully paid in 2012.
Rate Base Growth
 
 

 
11
*Reg G reconciliation to GAAP for 2006 EPS from Operations and 2007 and 2008
EPS Guidance available in Appendix and at www.pge-corp.com
EPS from Operations*
                                                    8%
EPS from Operations*:
2007 guidance of $2.70-$2.80 per share
 
2008 guidance of $2.90-$3.00 per share
EPS Guidance
 
 

 
12
Survey of analyst estimates of EPS growth:
Source:  Thomson IBIS long-term EPS Growth Consensus Estimate Median May 8, 2007
EPS Growth - Comparator Group
EPS from operations annual growth targeted to average 8%
for 2007 - 2011
 
 

 
13
Potential Earnings Upsides
Transformation benefits
Energy efficiency incentives
Additional transmission and generation investments
 
 

 
14
California Energy Policy
PG&E’s resource investment strategy is aligned with
California’s Energy Action Planpreferred loading order”:
1.
Energy Efficiency
2.
Demand Response
3.
Renewable Resources
4.
Distributed Generation
5.
Conventional Resources
 
 

 
15
Over the past 30 years, California per capita energy use has remained
relatively flat compared to the 50% increase in U.S. per capita energy use.
Source: California Energy Commission
California’s Success With Energy Efficiency
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
US
CA
Western Europe
 
 
 

 
16
Changing Legislative Environment for GHG
Recent greenhouse gas legislation:
California global warming legislation enacted in 2006
Federal legislation expected in 2 to 4 years
PG&E supports:
Mandatory market-based approach
Encouraging early action toward goals before full regulatory
implementation
Recognition of prior actions
Pursuit of all cost-effective reductions in greenhouse gases
International cooperation
 
 

 
17
*   Comparison companies selected by Innovest.  Data include emissions of regulated and unregulated plants.
2004 is the most recent data available.
2004 CO2 Emissions and Emission Rates*
Source:  Innovest
Relative CO2 Emissions Rates - Generation
 
 

 
18
Industry Leadership and Emerging Growth
PG&E is looking ahead to the future of utility services
Clean/renewable fuel technologies
Smart Energy Web
Plug-in anywhere technologies
Sustainable Energy Communities
 
 

 
19
PCG Investment Opportunity Summary 
First quartile EPS growth
-    Approved infrastructure investment
Potential upsides
-    Transformation benefits
-    Energy efficiency incentives
-    Additional transmission and generation investment
New Products and Services
-    Diverse management team with a competitive mindset
-    Record of innovation, well-positioned for industry change
 
 

 
20
Conference Notes
 
 

 
21
Appendix 
Bank of America
Third Annual Utilities Mini-Conference
June 26, 2007, Los Angeles, CA
 
 

 
22
GWh Savings:  Historic and Target
About half of expected load growth will be met by energy efficiency
PG&E’s budget and goals for 2006-2008:
- Overall energy efficiency budget:
$975 million
- PG&E filled goals:
3,063 GWh; 47 therms
PG&E’s Energy Efficiency Programs 
 
 

 
23
MWs
Demand response impacts expected to double from 2007
Actual and Projected Capacity Savings from Demand Response Programs
Demand Response Programs
 
 

 
24
* 2008 to 2011 estimates are based on forecasted construction schedules and
additional contracted resources
Projected Deliveries Plus Contracts*
2006 deliveries comprised of:
Renewable Portfolio Standard target is 20% by 2010
Renewable Resource Procurement 
 
 

 
25
PPAs
Counterparty/Facility
Size
(MW)
Target Operational
Date
Contract Term
(years)
Calpine Hayward
601
2010
10
EIF Firebaugh
399
2009
20
Starwood Firebaugh
118
2009
15
EIF Fresno
196
2009
20
Tierra Energy Hayward
116
2009
20
Total
1,430
   
Facility
Size (MW)
Status
Target Operational Date
Estimated Capital
Costs
Gateway
530
broken ground
2009
$370 million
Humboldt Bay
163
permitting
2009
$239 million
Colusa
657
permitting
2010
$673 million
Total
1,350
   
$1,282 million
New Generation Resources: Utility-Owned &
Conventional Power Purchase Agreements
 
 

 
26
*Over  20% of total retail sales expected to be eligible renewable resources coming from
utility-owned, QFs, Irrigation Districts, and other sources.
**May include utility -owned resources.**
* Approximately 13% of total retail sales expected to be eligible renewable resources
coming from utility-owned, QFs, Irrigation Districts and other sources.
2007 Projected Sources of Energy
85,500 GWh
2012 Projected Sources of Energy
89,900 GWh
Energy efficiency expected to meet half of future load growth
Growth in renewable resources and resources with operating flexibility
Growth in utility ownership
Long-Term Electric Resources
 
 

 
27
CA State legislation in place
    - Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32)
    - Emissions Performance Standard for Baseload Generation (SB 1368)
Potential federal near-term actions
   - Expanded incentives for renewable energy
    - Energy efficiency incentives
    - Accelerated depreciation for advanced meters
    - Advanced transportation technology subsidies and tax incentives
Potential federal longer-term actions
    - Proposed cap and trade programs
Carbon Legislation Landscape
 
 

 
28
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
             
Rate Reduction Bond and
Energy Recovery Bond Average
Deferred Tax Balance
$854
$683
$542
$396
$243
$82
             
Estimated After-tax Carrying
Cost Credit *
$(50)
$(40)
$(32)
$(23)
$(14)
$(5)
             
* Reduction Bonds are fully retired at the end of 2007.
Estimated carrying cost credits assume a utility equity ratio of 52% and ROE at 11.35%.
Carrying Cost Credit Impacts
Estimated Average Deferred Tax Balances and Carrying Cost Credit Impacts
($MM)
 
 

 
29
($MM)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
             
Annual ERB
Amortization
$340
$354
$369
$386
$404
$423
             
End-of-year ERB
balance
$1,936
$1,582
$1,213
$827
$423
-
             
ERB Amortization Schedule
 
 

 
30
Credit Profile
Current Ratings
-   Utility issuer rating:  BBB+ (S&P) and Baa1 (Moody’s)
-   Utility unsecured debt:  BBB+ (S&P) and Baa1 (Moody’s)
Average Utility Metrics (2007-2011)*
-   S&P Business Profile Rating:  5
-   Total Debt to capitalization (EOY):  53.6%
-   Funds from Operations Cash Interest Coverage:  5.1x
-   Funds from Operations to Average Total Debt:  22%
* 
Metrics include debt equivalents for long-term power purchase contracts
 
 

 
31
Dividend Policy
Objectives:
-   Flexibility
-   Sustainability
-   Comparability
Payout ratio range of 50% - 70%
Growth balanced with funding for additional investment
opportunities
Dividend growth is expected to be generally in line with the
growth in EPS from Operations
 
 

 
32
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure.  This non-GAAP measure is used
because it allows investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to
another, exclusive of items that do not reflect the normal course of operations
2006
EPS on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
$2.57
Items Impacting Comparability:
 
Scheduling Coordinator Cost Recovery
Environmental Remediation Liability
Recovery of Interest on PX Liability
Severance Costs
0.21
(0.05)
0.08
(0.05)
EPS on a GAAP Basis
$2.76
2006 EPS - Reg G Reconciliation
 
 

 
33
2007
   
 
Low
High
EPS Guidance on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
Estimated Items Impacting Comparability
EPS Guidance on a GAAP Basis
$2.70
0.00
$2.70
$2.80
0.00
$2.80
2008
   
 
Low
High
EPS Guidance on an Earnings from Operations Basis*
Estimated Items Impacting Comparability
EPS Guidance on a GAAP Basis
$2.90
0.00
$2.90
$3.00
0.00
$3.00
* Earnings per share from operations is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used because it allows
investors to compare the core underlying financial performance from one period to another, exclusive of items that do not
reflect the normal course of operations.
EPS Guidance - Reg G Reconciliation