EX-99.(C)(V) 63 ex99cv-.htm MORGAN STANLEY DISCUSSION MATERIALS DATED JUNE 2, 2009 ex99cv-.htm
Exhibit (c)(v)
 
 
CONFIDENTIAL WORKING DRAFT  FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
Summary of Implied Transaction Premiums
Implied Transaction Premiums vs. Stock Trading History
Project Celtic
1
 Analysis divides selected
 precedents into quartiles based
 on where the target’s stock was
 trading relative to its trading
 range during the 3 months
 immediately prior to
 announcement
 
Notes
1. Based on selected deals since 2001; all cash; US targets; minority buy-in value of $25 - $500MM; majority shareholder owned less than 90% of target
2. Final premium statistics exclude Hearst-Argyle transaction, which has not been completed
Minority Buy-in Precedents (1)
Source  Public Filings, Press Releases, FactSet
Prior to announcement,
stock price was in bottom
quartile of its 3-month
trading range
Prior to announcement,
stock price was in top
quartile of its 3-month
trading range
No. of deals
11
2
4
9
Initial Premium to Prior Day Price:
Median Premium
35.6%
58.6%
28.1%
11.5%
Mean Premium
32.4%
58.6%
38.4%
14.2%
High Premium
60.0%
91.4%
97.5%
38.8%
Low Premium
8.6%
25.8%
0.0%
(7.9%)
Final Premium to Prior Day Price:
(2)
Median Premium
45.5%
29.6%
53.8%
23.9%
Mean Premium
48.3%
29.6%
56.3%
26.1%
High Premium
140.0%
29.6%
97.5%
52.9%
Low Premium
13.2%
29.6%
20.0%
6.7%
 
 

 
CONFIDENTIAL WORKING DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
Implied Transaction Premiums vs. Stock Trading History (cont’d)
Project Celtic
2
Note
1. Based on selected deals since 2001; all cash; US targets; minority buy-in value of $25 - $500MM; majority shareholder owned less than 90% of target
Minority Buy-in Precedents (1)
Source  Public Filings, Press Releases, FactSet
 Analysis evaluates premiums
 paid in precedent transactions
 based on where target was
 trading relative to its L3M
 average trading price and L3M
 high trading price at the time a
 transaction was announced 
Summary of Implied Transaction Premiums
Initial Premium To
Final Premium To
Prior Day
Prior Day Closing Price
Prior Day Closing Price
Trading Price
# of Transactions
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Target Trading Above L3M Average
13
21.6%
11.5%
35.4%
29.8%
Target Trading Below L3M Average
13
36.4%
35.6%
46.8%
42.8%
Target Trading at 0 - 30% Discount to L3M High
18
21.4%
15.8%
33.4%
29.7%
Target Trading at 30%+ Discount to L3M High
8
46.2%
45.8%
60.2%
45.8%
 
 
 
 

 
CONFIDENTIAL WORKING DRAFT – FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
Minority Buy-in Precedents (1)
Project Celtic
3
Notes
1. Based on selected deals since 2001; all cash; US targets; minority buy-in value of $25 - $500MM; majority shareholder owned less than 90% of target
2. Ranking based on where target was trading relative to its 3-month trading range immediately prior to announcement
Breakdown of L3M Trading by Quartiles
Initial
Final
Day
L3M
L3M
L3M
L3M
Day
L3M
L3M
Day
L3M
L3M
Quartile
(2)
3/25/09
Hearst-Argyle Television Inc
$4.00
NA
$2.09
3.64
6.56
(42.6%)
(68.1%)
91.4%
9.8%
(39.0%)
NA
NA
NA
2
3/23/09
Cox Radio Inc
3.80
4.80
3.30
5.07
6.66
(34.9%)
(50.5%)
15.2%
(25.0%)
(42.9%)
45.5%
(5.3%)
(27.9%)
1
10/22/07
Waste Industries USA Inc
36.75
38.00
27.11
30.08
35.12
(9.9%)
(22.8%)
35.6%
22.2%
4.6%
40.2%
26.3%
8.2%
1
2/22/07
Great American Finl Res Inc
23.50
24.50
21.64
22.44
23.66
(3.6%)
(8.5%)
8.6%
4.7%
(0.7%)
13.2%
9.2%
3.6%
1
10/9/06
NetRatings Inc
16.00
21.00
14.57
13.90
14.99
4.9%
(2.8%)
9.8%
15.1%
6.7%
44.1%
51.1%
40.1%
3
3/21/06
Erie Family Life Insurance Co
32.00
32.00
30.00
27.84
30.00
7.8%
0.0%
6.7%
15.0%
6.7%
6.7%
15.0%
6.7%
4
9/13/05
CoolSavings Inc
0.80
0.80
0.55
0.67
0.83
(17.9%)
(33.7%)
45.5%
19.5%
(3.6%)
45.5%
19.5%
(3.6%)
1
4/12/04
Edelbrock Corp
14.80
16.75
13.52
12.81
14.00
5.5%
(3.4%)
9.5%
15.5%
5.7%
23.9%
30.7%
19.6%
4
7/24/03
Digex Inc
0.70
1.00
0.76
0.47
0.76
61.3%
0.0%
(7.9%)
48.5%
(7.9%)
31.6%
112.2%
31.6%
4
6/2/03
Ribapharm Inc
5.60
6.25
5.08
4.53
5.21
12.1%
(2.5%)
10.2%
23.6%
7.5%
23.0%
38.0%
20.0%
4
2/18/03
Lexent Inc
1.25
1.50
0.91
0.99
1.16
(8.4%)
(21.6%)
37.4%
25.9%
7.8%
64.8%
51.1%
29.3%
1
1/13/03
Next Level Communications Inc
1.04
1.18
0.91
0.79
1.10
15.8%
(17.4%)
14.4%
32.5%
(5.5%)
29.8%
50.3%
7.3%
4
7/30/02
JCC Holding Co
10.54
10.54
9.00
6.56
9.00
37.2%
0.0%
17.1%
60.7%
17.1%
17.1%
60.7%
17.1%
4
7/9/02
International Specialty Prods
10.00
10.30
7.95
8.31
10.10
(4.3%)
(21.3%)
25.8%
20.4%
(1.0%)
29.6%
24.0%
2.0%
2
3/18/02
Meemic Holdings Inc
29.00
29.00
26.00
22.64
26.00
14.8%
0.0%
11.5%
28.1%
11.5%
11.5%
28.1%
11.5%
4
3/14/02
Konover Property Trust Inc
1.75
2.10
1.75
1.62
1.85
7.9%
(5.4%)
0.0%
7.9%
(5.4%)
20.0%
29.5%
13.5%
3
2/19/02
Travelocity.com Inc
23.00
28.00
19.20
23.75
29.49
(19.2%)
(34.9%)
19.8%
(3.2%)
(22.0%)
45.8%
17.9%
(5.0%)
1
10/10/01
TD Waterhouse Group Inc
9.00
9.50
6.20
8.12
10.24
(23.7%)
(39.5%)
45.2%
10.8%
(12.1%)
53.2%
17.0%
(7.2%)
1
10/1/01
NCH Corp
47.50
52.50
39.19
42.71
44.90
(8.2%)
(12.7%)
21.2%
11.2%
5.8%
34.0%
22.9%
16.9%
1
8/22/01
Homeservices Com Inc
17.00
17.00
12.25
11.43
13.00
7.2%
(5.8%)
38.8%
48.8%
30.8%
38.8%
48.8%
30.8%
4
8/21/01
Spectra Physics Inc
20.00
17.50
13.69
20.33
25.00
(32.7%)
(45.2%)
46.1%
(1.6%)
(20.0%)
27.8%
(13.9%)
(30.0%)
1
8/16/01
Leeds Federal Bankshares Inc
32.00
32.00
16.20
15.97
17.10
1.5%
(5.3%)
97.5%
100.4%
87.1%
97.5%
100.4%
87.1%
3
5/30/01
Bacou USA Inc
28.50
28.50
23.40
25.28
25.85
(7.4%)
(9.5%)
21.8%
12.8%
10.3%
21.8%
12.8%
10.3%
1
5/23/01
Unigraphics Solutions Inc
27.00
32.50
21.25
19.00
23.00
11.8%
(7.6%)
27.1%
42.1%
17.4%
52.9%
71.0%
41.3%
4
5/14/01
Agency.com Ltd
3.00
3.35
2.05
1.81
3.06
13.5%
(33.1%)
46.3%
66.2%
(2.0%)
63.4%
85.5%
9.4%
3
3/26/01
CSFBdirect
4.00
6.00
2.50
3.86
5.25
(35.2%)
(52.4%)
60.0%
3.6%
(23.8%)
140.0%
55.5%
14.3%
1
Mean
(1.8%)
(19.4%)
29.0%
23.7%
1.3%
40.9%
38.3%
13.9%
Median
(1.1%)
(11.1%)
21.5%
17.5%
2.0%
34.0%
29.5%
11.5%
High
61.3%
0.0%
97.5%
100.4%
87.1%
140.0%
112.2%
87.1%
Low
(42.6%)
(68.1%)
(7.9%)
(25.0%)
(42.9%)
6.7%
(13.9%)
(30.0%)