EX-99.(C)(2) 2 nt10006718x2_ex99-c2.htm EXHIBIT (C)(2)

Exhibit (C)(2)
   Strictly Private and Confidential    Citi Banking, Capital Markets & Advisory | TransportationOctober 28, 2019  Project EuropaMaterials for the Board of Directors 
 

     Citi Confidential Disclaimer  The following pages contain material provided to the Board of Directors of Aircastle Limited (“Europa” or the “Company”) by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (“Citi”) in connection with a potential transaction involving the Company.The accompanying material was compiled or prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use of the Board of Directors of the Company and not with a view toward public disclosure under any securities laws or otherwise. The information contained in the accompanying material was obtained from the Company and other sources. Any estimates and projections for the Company contained herein have been prepared or adopted by the management of the Company, obtained from public sources, or are based upon such estimates and projections, and involve numerous and significant subjective determinations, and there is no assurance that such estimates and projections will be realized. Citi does not take responsibility for such estimates and projections, or the basis on which they were prepared. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. In preparing the accompanying material, Citi assumed and relied, without independent verification, upon the accuracy and completeness of all financial and other information and data publicly available or provided to or otherwise reviewed by or discussed with Citi and upon the assurances of the managements and other representatives of the Company that they are not aware of any relevant information that has been omitted or that remains undisclosed to Citi.The accompanying material was not prepared for use by readers not as familiar with the Company as the Board of Directors of the Company and, accordingly, neither the Company nor Citi nor their respective legal or financial advisors or accountants take any responsibility for the accompanying material if used by persons other than the Board of Directors of the Company. The accompanying material is necessarily based upon information available, and financial, stock market and other conditions and circumstances existing and disclosed, to Citi as of the date of the accompanying material. Citi does not have any obligation to update or otherwise revise the accompanying material. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice.  1 
 

 1. Trading Overview 
 

             Total Shareholder Return Performance vs. Select Aircraft Lessors  Total Shareholder Return (1)(Since January 1, 2014)  FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.Total shareholder return assumes dividends are reinvested in the respective security as of distribution.  Source: (1)(2)  Reflects price performance since market close on August 5, 2019, the day before Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement on the morning of August 6, 2019..  64%  83%    TSR  25%  63%    Price Return        20  40  60  80  100  120  140  160  180  200%  Jan-14  May-14  Oct-14  Mar-15  Aug-15  Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16Brexit Vote US Election (June 23, (November 6,2016) 2016)  Apr-17  Sep-17  Feb-18 Jul-18Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns (February 2018)  Dec-18 May-19Trade Tensions and Growth Uncertainty (December 2018)  Oct-19  2  51%48%  51%42%  AL  Europa AER          S&P 500                  (5)08/05 08/16 08/27 09/07 09/18 09/29 10/10 10/21  25%  Q2 2019 Earnings (2) 24%  20    15  15%  10  12%  5  6%  0    Total Shareholder Return Since       Total Shareholder Return Since Jan. 1, 2014 2-Years LTM YTD     Europa  64%  15%  30%  44%  5.0%  AL  48  3  13  48  1.2  AER S&P 500   5183   1022   1412   4622   ----  LQA DividendYield  
 

                   $36.3  $17.8  $7.8  $15.9  $2.8                3.7  6.2  9.5  3.1  7.4                1,042  361  283  337  98                  $8.2  $5.0  $1.8  $6.4  $0.7  $36.4  $17.9  $6.8  $19.0  $3.0  Benchmarking Select Publicly-Listed Aircraft Lessors  Number of Aircraft(Last Reported Quarter; Owned and Managed)  Firm Value and Equity Value($ in billions)  Aircraft Net Book Value(Last Reported Quarter; $ in billions)        Source:  Public filings and presentations. FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.  Average Age of Aircraft(Last Reported Quarter; In Years)    Firm Value      Equity Value            EuropaPurchase Commitments (Number of Aircraft)  331 343 32 162 29        Europa          Europa        Europa                  3 
 

                   5.5%  6.0%  8.2%  5.1%  6.8%                2.4x  2.5x  3.1x  3.0x  3.1x                12.7%  11.4%  11.2%  15.7%                12.1%  10.8%  10.6%  14.7%  10.7%    Benchmarking Select Publicly-Listed Aircraft Lessors (Cont’d)  SG&A as a % of Total Revenues(LTM)  Portfolio Yield (1)(LTM)  Net Debt / Equity(Last Reported Quarter)  Post-Tax ROE(LTM; Adjusted for Impairments)        Source: (1)  (2)  Public filings and presentations, Bloomberg, FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019. Calculated as Total Lease Revenues / Average Net Book Value of Aircraft, excluding maintenance reserves and overhaul revenues, as disclosed by each company.As reported by each respective company in latest filings.  (3)  (4)  FLY LTM Post-Tax ROE is 15.4%, calculated excluding gain on sale of aircraft. Assumes effective tax rate over prior four quarters.Reflects Europa Base Case estimates for Europa and Wall Street estimates for other select publicly- listed aircraft lessors. FLY figure is 2020E, based on available broker research.  Average Debt Cost (2)  -- / BBB / BBB Baa3 / BBB- / BBB- Baa3 / BBB- / BBB- -- / A- / A- Ba3 / BB- / --  3.5% 4.8% 4.2% 3.6% 4.8%  Long Term ROE (2021E) (4)      Europa        Europa          EuropaCredit Ratings (M / S / F)        Europa      10.2% 13.1% 9.6% 12.2% 15.4%            SG&A as a % of Average Total Assets0.6% 0.6%  1.0%  0.5%  0.9%    22.5%(3)  4 
 

           0.40  0.80  1.601.20  2.00x  Jan-14  Jun-14  Dec-14  Jun-15  Dec-15  May-16  Nov-16  May-17  Nov-17  Apr-18  Oct-18  Apr-19  Oct-19  Historical Trading Multiples for Europa and Select Aircraft Lessors  Price / Book(January 1, 2014 – Present)  Price / NTM Pre-Tax Income(January 1, 2014 – Present)    Source: Note:  AER shown after May 14th, 2014, the closing date of the acquisition of International Lease Finance Corporation.  AER AL        0.93x0.89x0.87x  6.6x  5.6x  10.3x        2.0  6.0  10.0  14.0x  Jan-14  Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 May-16EuropaPublic filings and presentations, FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.  Nov-16  May-17  Nov-17  Apr-18  Oct-18  Apr-19  Oct-19  5   Trailing Averages Since Jan. 1, 2014 3-Years 2-Years LTM   Europa  9.6x  9.0x  8.8x  8.7x  AL  6.8  6.1  6.0  5.1  AER  6.6  6.5  6.6  6.1   Trailing Averages Since Jan. 1, 2014 3-Years 2-Years LTM   Europa AL AER  0.92x1.150.98  0.88x1.060.88  0.83x1.020.86  0.76x0.860.78     
 

 2. Preliminary Financial Analysis 
 

     Overview of Base Case and Sensitivities    Base Case  Assumes aircraft acquisitions of $1.4 billion - $1.7 billion per yearDebt / equity of 2.5x - 2.8x  For Reference Only  Higher Growth Sensitivity  Aircraft acquisitions increased to $1.7 billion - $2.2 billion per yearDebt / equity of 3.0x by 2021E    Lower Growth Sensitivity  Aircraft acquisitions reduced to $1 billion - $1.4 billion per yearDebt / equity of 2.5x - 2.9x  Source: Note:  Europa Management.Base Case and sensitivities assume no share repurchases and treat forecast stock based compensation as a cash cost.  6 
 

                                                                     $2,418  $2,579$2,522  $2,073$2,073  $2,171$2,158  $2,301  $2,480  $2,667  $1,834  $1,908  $2,009  $2,073$2,046  $2,155$2,122  $2,265 $2,390$2,251$2,175  2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E                                                                        $995  $1,114  $911$894  $1,021  $1,062  $911$911$911  $1,078  $1,203  $1,307$1,194  $812  $852  $890  $890  $975$923  $957$938  2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E                                                                  $1,400  $1,700  $1,700 $1,700  $1,269  $1,038  $1,212  $1,374  $1,239  $1,269$1,269  $2,200  $1,700  $1,800  $2,100  $1,331  $1,038  $1,317  $1,198  $1,053  $1,100  2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E  Source: Note: (1)  Company filings, Europa Management, Wall Street research.Consensus estimates represent the median of latest available Wall Street research. Includes gains on sale of aircraft.  Europa Comparison (Base Case and Sensitivities)  # of Brokers    6    6    4    2016A 2017A 2018AShareholders’ Equity($ in millions)    19-21E CAGR 5.4%4.5%4.2%3.1%      19-21E CAGR 8.8%4.5%3.7%1.5%  # of Brokers    9    9    6  Total Revenue (1)($ in millions)        4    4    3  # of Brokers  Aircraft Acquisition($ in millions)           # of Brokers                                                                  $236  $229  $164$164  $235  $290  $305  $164  $184$178  $265  $278  $151  $148  $248  $151  $197$184  $212$200$193  2016A 2017A 2018A  2021E 2022E 2023EEuropa – Higher Growth Sensitivity Europa – Base CaseEuropa – Lower Growth Sensitivity Historicals / Consensus Estimates  19-21E CAGR19.5%15.1%13.7%8.5%  2016A 2017ANet Income($ in millions)      6 62019E 2020E    3    7 
 

   Implied Per Share Value (1)  Latest Reported Quarter (2)Price / Book Range: 0.87x - 0.93xCurrent Book Value per Share of $26.96  Europa - Base CasePrice / 2020E Pre-Tax Income Range: 5.3x - 6.9x  2020E Pre-Tax Income per Share of $2.56  Europa - Base CasePrice / 2020E Net Income Range: 6.9x - 7.8x  2020E Earnings per Share of $2.39Europa - Base Case  Terminal Year Price / Book: 0.80x - 1.00x; Cost of Equity: 8.00% - 10.50%  Gross Debt / Equity Target of 2.5xTrading Range  52-Week Intraday Trading Range to 10/23/2019  Discounted Analyst Targets (3)Price Target Range: $18.00 - $26.00Discounted at Mid-Point Cost of Equity: 9.25%  Selected Precedent Premiums Paid Analysis  20.0% - 30.0% Premium to Unaffected Share Price as of 10/23/2019 of $23.86  20.0% - 30.0% Premium to Share Price as of 8/6/2019 (Q2 2019 Earnings) of $19.73  Net Asset Value per ShareBased on Average of Third Party Appraisals for Maintenance-Adjusted CMV                                      Selected Companies Analysis  Price / Book    Price / Pre-Tax Income    Price / Earnings    Discounted Dividends Analysis  For Reference Only  Reference Metrics                              $23.60  $13.70  $16.60  $21.50  $15.75  $16.80  $28.60  $11.64  $25.10  $17.70  $18.60  $28.90  $23.86  $23.80  $31.00    $23.70    $25.60  Summary Preliminary Financial Analysis  Source: Note:  (1)  Company filings, Europa Management, FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019. Assumes illustrative valuation date of June 30, 2019.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Rounded to the nearest $0.10, except for Trading Range and Net Asset Value per Share.  Based on Book Value Per Share calculated as Shareholders’ Equity of $2,021 million divided by shares issued and outstanding of 74.983 million as of June 30, 2019 and as stated in Europa’s Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Presentation.Discounted to current assuming 1-year forward estimate as of analyst publication date.  Share Price as of 8/6/2019: Share Price as of 10/23/2019:  $19.73$23.86  Offer Range:$28.00 - $30.00  Excludes selected transactions due to lack of publicly available information regarding recent aircraft leasing platform sales, which are typically private transactions.Methodology  8 
 

     Discounted Dividends Analysis    Discounted cash flow analysis based on forecasted dividends  Excess equity capital is distributed annually in the form of a dividend to shareholders based on a target debt to equity ratioAssumes Europa net debt of $5,043 million as of June 30, 2019Assumes any incremental debt is financed through Europa’s existing revolver capacity at a rate of L + 150 bpsAssumes minimum cash of $100 millionMid-period discounting convention applied to dividend stream  Price / Book terminal multiple range applied to terminal Book Equity  Source: Note:  (1)  Company filings, Europa Management.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Rounded to the nearest $0.10.  Assumptions Implied Per Share Value (1)  Europa - Base Case  Terminal Year Price / Book: 0.80x - 1.00x  Cost of Equity: 8.00% - 10.50%  Gross Debt / Equity Target of 2.5x            For Reference Only  Europa - Higher Growth SensitivityTerminal Year Price / Book: 0.80x - 1.00x Cost of Equity: 8.00% - 10.50%Gross Debt / Equity Target of 3.0x  $22.80  $30.00    Europa - Lower Growth SensitivityTerminal Year Price / Book: 0.80x - 1.00x Cost of Equity: 8.00% - 10.50%Gross Debt / Equity Target of 2.5x  $22.10  $28.50  $21.50  $28.90  9 
 

   Implied Multiples at Various Prices  Source: Note:  (1)(2)(3)(4)  Company filings, Europa Management, Wall Street research, FactSet. Market data as of October 25, 2019. Balance sheet data as of June 30, 2019.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Date prior to Europa announcement of review of strategic alternatives. Shares closed at $23.86. Date of Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement. Shares closed at $19.73.Assumes net debt of $5,043 million and $79 million in investment in affiliates per Q2 2019 filings.Book Value Per Share calculated as Shareholders’ Equity of $2,021 million divided by shares issued and outstanding of 74.983 million as of June 30, 2019 and as stated in Europa’s Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Presentation.  10  Price / Book  CurrentJune 30, 2019A (4)  $26.96  0.99x  1.04x 1.11x  Price / Pre-Tax Income  Europa Base Case                           October 25, 2019     Offer Range     ($ in millions, except per share items)     Metric    $26.80  $28.00    $30.00  Implied Premium to Share Price on October 25, 2019    $26.80    --  4%    12%  Implied Premium to Share Price on October 23, 2019 (1)    23.86    12%  17    26  Implied Premium to Share Price on August 6, 2019 (2)    19.73    36  42    52  % Premium / (Discount) to:                52-Week Intraday High Pre-Announcement (on October 23, 2019)    $23.86    12%  17%  26%    52-Week Intraday Low (on December 26, 2018)    15.75    70  78  90    VWAP for the 12 Months Prior to August 6, 2019    19.85    35  41  51    VWAP since August 6, 2019    22.04    22  27  36    Equity Value        $2,056  $2,148  $2,302    Firm Value (3)        7,021  7,113  7,266    Dividend Yield                LQA    $1.20    4.5%  4.3%  4.0%            2019E  $2.35  11.4x  11.9x  12.8x  2020E  2.56  10.5  10.9  11.7  Price / Earnings          Europa Base Case2019E  $2.14  12.5x  13.1x  14.0x  2020E  2.39  11.2  11.7  12.5 
 

   Selected Companies Analysis  Financial Data    Source: Note:  (1)  Public filings and presentations, FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019. Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Rounded to the nearest $0.10.  (2)  (3)  Book Value Per Share calculated as Shareholders’ Equity of $2,021 million divided by shares issued and outstanding of 74.983 million as of June 30, 2019 and as stated in Europa’s Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Presentation.Represents Europa Base Case.  Per Share(1)  Methodology  Reference   Reference Range Low High  Low  High        Considered But Excluded RationaleBOC Aviation considered but excluded due to majority controlling ownership by Chinese SOE (Bank of China) as well as Hong Kong listingFLY Leasing considered but excluded as the company is a publicly traded vehicle externally managed by BBAMImplied Reference Ranges  Europa (Consensus)  $23.86  5.0%  $1.8  $6.8  11.1x  8.7x  11.9x  9.6x  0.89x  Europa (Base Case)  23.86  5.0  1.8  6.8  10.2  9.3  11.1  10.0  0.89  ($ in billions,  Share  LQA  Equity  Firm  Price / Pre-Tax Income   Price / Earnings  Price /  except per share data)  Price  Yield  Value  Value  2019E  2020E    2019E  2020E  Book  AerCap (AER)  $57.72  --  $8.2  $36.4  6.2x  6.9x    7.3x  7.8x  0.87x  Air Lease (AL)  44.12  1.2%  5.0  17.9  6.8  5.3    8.7  6.9  0.93  Considered But Excluded:                    BOC Aviation  $9.17  3.0%  $6.4  $19.0  8.5x  7.7x  9.4x  8.5x  1.48x  Fly Leasing  20.78  --  0.7  3.0  3.3  5.2  3.7  6.1  0.86  (2)              Price / Book  Current BVPS: $26.96    0.87x  0.93x  $23.60  $25.10  Price / Pre-Tax Income  2020E Pre-Tax Income per Share: $2.56  (3)  5.3  6.9  13.70  17.70      (3)          Price / Earnings  2020E Earnings per Share: $2.39    6.9  7.8  16.60  18.60                11 
 

 3. Reference Materials 
 

   12/24/201852-Week Low (2)($16.19)  Share Price Performance over the Last Twelve Months  Source: Note: (1)  (2)  FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.Select Aircraft Lessors include AER and AL. Represents a market cap weighted index.Reflects price performance since market close on August 5, 2019, the day before Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement on the morning of August 6, 2019. Does not indicate total shareholder return.At market close.  Price  10/23/201952-Week High (2)($23.86 )$23.86Unaffected Price  Offer Range:$28.00 - $30.00    $19.85VWAP 12 Months Prior to August 6th  $22.04VWAP Since August 6th        Relative Share Price Performance Since Q2 2019 Earnings Release (1)  22%  6%              20151050(5)  25%  08/05      08/16 08/27 09/07Europa AER      09/18 09/29 10/10 10/21AL S&P 500  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyShare Price Performance  12  15%12%                                      14  16  18  20  22  24  26  28  30  $32  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19  Jul-19  Aug-19  Sep-19  Oct-19 
 

       -- -- -- -- 2% 3% 9% 8% 4%                    13%            15%                                    6%                                            $15.50 -  $16.46 -  $17.41 -  $18.37 -  $19.32 -    $20.28 -    $21.23 -    $22.19 -    $23.14 -  $16.46  $17.41  $18.37  $19.32  $20.28    $21.23    $22.19    $23.14    $24.10  34%  32%  Volume Weighted Average Trading Ranges  3%  11%  5%  19%  56%  58%  13%  --  --  Cumulative Volume as a Percentage of Public Float                  2%  6%  3%  12%  34%  36%  8%  $15.50 -$16.46  $16.46 -$17.41  $17.41 -$18.37  $18.37 -$19.32  $19.32 -$20.28  $20.28 -$21.23  $21.23 -$22.19  $22.19 -$23.14  $23.14 -$24.10    Source:  FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.    VWAP: $22.04      Since Q2 Earnings (August 6, 2019)  Unaffected Share Price$23.86  Cumulative Volume as a Percentage of Public Float        52-Week High$23.86      Unaffected Share Price$23.86      52-Week High$23.86    VWAP: $19.85  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference Only12 Months Prior to Q2 Earnings (August 6, 2019)  13 
 

                     $23.00  $23.00  $21.00  $20.00  $20.00  $18.00  $26.00  $26.00  $25.00  $25.00  $25.00  $26.00  Q2 '18  Q3 '18  Q4 '18  Q1 '19  Q2 '19  Current                            Target Price Range vs. Share Price  Ratings and Median Target Price Over TimeBuy Hold Sell                            89%    78%    78%    11%    11%    30%                67%    67%                            50%        22%    22%    22%    22%    20%    11%                        $24.00 $24.50 $24.00$23.00 $22.50                    $22.50    Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19                    Current    Source: (1)  Company filings, Wall Street research, and FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019. Unaffected price as of October 23, 2019.      Median    Share Price  14              Wall Street Analyst Target  Prices        For Illustrative Purposes and Reference Only          Unaffected Share Price: $23.86 (1)                  Premium to  Broker  Report Date  Rating  Target Price  Unaffected Price  J.P.Morgan  10/21/19  Sell  $26.00  9.0%  Stephens  10/01/19  Hold  22.00  (7.8)  Bank of America Merrill Lynch  08/12/19  Sell  20.00  (16.2)  Compass Point  08/07/19  Hold  23.00  (3.6)  Barclays  08/07/19  Hold  22.00  (7.8)  Cowen & Company  08/06/19  Buy  25.00  4.8  Macquarie  08/06/19  Buy  25.00  4.8  Deutsche Bank  08/06/19  Hold  23.00  (3.6)  Credit Suisse  08/06/19  Hold  21.00  (12.0)  Goldman Sachs  08/06/19  Sell  18.00  (24.6)            Median      $22.50  (5.7%)  Maximum      26.00  9.0  Minimum      18.00  (24.6)                     
 

     Selected Premiums Paid Analysis    Number of Deals  Source: Note:  Deal Intelligence.Includes friendly and unsolicited transactions involving a US target with an equity value of $1.0-$3.0 billion. Excludes hostile transactions.                25%  27%  36%  28%  26%  25%  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019 YTD   All Cash Deals   Median Premium  27%  75th Percentile  47  25th Percentile  17  Number of Deals  224  27  37  48  37  44  31  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyMedian 1-Day % Premium(All Cash Deals; January 1, 2014 – October 23, 2019)  15 
 

   Europa Net Asset Value                              Implied Net Asset Value($ in millions; as of June 30, 2019)  $7,842Net Book Value          $6,692Appraiser 1    $6,694Appraiser 2      $6,693Average Appraisal  Cash (1)  $150          $150    $150      $150  Fleet Value  7,842 (2)          6,692    6,694      6,693  Other Assets (2)  292          292    292      292  Total Assets  $8,284          $7,134    $7,136      $7,135  Debt (3)  $5,193          $5,193    $5,193      $5,193  Other Liabilities  1,070          1,070    1,070      1,070  Total Liabilities  $6,263          $6,263    $6,263      $6,263  Implied Net Asset Value  $2,021          $872    $873      $873  Basic Shares Outstanding (4)  74.983          74.983    74.983      74.983  Implied Net Asset Value per Share  $26.96          $11.63    $11.65      $11.64                          Source: Europa Management, Company filings.Assumed pro forma $150 million cash balance as per Europa Management guidance.Includes finance leases, lease incentives & lease premiums and flight equipment held for sale.Represents gross debt outstanding, pro forma for the July 14, 2019 redemption of $500 million Senior Notes due 2019.Europa basic shares outstanding of 74.983 million as listed on the Company’s balance sheet as of June 30, 2019.  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyBook Value vs. Maintenance-Adjusted Current Market Value($ in millions; as of June 30, 2019)  16 
 

     Discounted Dividends Analysis – Europa Base Case    Source: Note:  (1)(2)  Company filings, Europa Management.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Calculated relative to Europa Base Case forecast.Treats forecast stock based compensation as a cash cost.  Excess equity capital is distributed annually in the form of a dividend to shareholders based on a target of 2.5x debt / equityAssumes Europa net debt of $5,043 million as of June 30, 2019Assumes any incremental debt is financed through Europa’s existing revolver capacity at a rate of L + 150 bpsAssumes minimum cash of $100 millionMid-period discounting convention applied to dividend streamPrice / Book terminal multiple range applied to terminal Book EquitySensitivity AnalysisImplied Per Share Value (@ 2.50x Debt / Equity)    For Illustrative Purposes and Reference Only    Leverage Sensitivity (@ 0.90x Terminal Multiple)Illustrative Discount Rate  TargetLeverage        8.00%  9.25%  10.50%  2.00x  $25.80  $24.50  $23.28  2.50  26.29  25.03  23.83  3.00  27.33  26.19  25.10  Assumptions  ($ in millions)  2H 2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  Discounted cash flow analysis based on forecasted dividends  Net Income  $98  $184  $212  $265  $278  After-Tax Interest Savings (Expense) on Paydown / Incremental Debt (1)    1  5  8  9  9  (Gains) Losses from Dispositions    (36)  (28)  (29)  (32)  (32)  Depreciation & Impairment Expense    182  378  415  458  502  Finance Leases    14  28  21  17  15  Other Non-Cash Charges (2)    21  55  47  51  35  FFO    $279  $622  $675  $767  $807  Change in Net Working Capital    7  (5)  (8)  (11)  (15)  Cash Flow from Operations    $286  $617  $666  $756  $792  Capital Expenditures, net    (302)  (1,093)  (1,269)  (1,246)  (1,065)  Change in Debt    (352)  452  518  461  315  Other Financing Cash Flows    11  31  98  118  119  Dividends Paid    (44)  (8)  (13)  (90)  (161)  Net Change in Cash    ($400)  --  --  --  --  Leverage after Dividend Payment  6/30/2019A  2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  Debt  $5,543  $5,191  $5,643  $6,161  $6,622  $6,937  Cash  500  100  100  100  100  100  Net Debt  $5,043  $5,091  $5,543  $6,061  $6,522  $6,837  Shareholders' Equity (2)  $2,021  $2,077  $2,257  $2,464  $2,649  $2,775  Total Debt / Equity  2.7x  2.5x  2.5x  2.5x  2.5x  2.5x  Net Debt / Equity  2.5  2.5  2.5  2.5  2.5  2.5                17 
 

     Discounted Dividends Analysis – Higher Growth Sensitivity      For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyAssumptionsDiscounted cash flow analysis based on forecasted dividendsExcess equity capital is distributed annually in the form of a dividend to shareholders based on a target of 3.0x debt / equityAssumes Europa net debt of $5,043 million as of June 30, 2019Assumes any incremental debt is financed through Europa’s existing revolver capacity at a rate of L + 150 bpsAssumes minimum cash of $100 millionMid-period discounting convention applied to dividend streamPrice / Book terminal multiple range applied to terminal Book Equity  Source: Note:  (1)(2)  Company filings, Europa Management.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Calculated relative to Europa Higher Growth Sensitivity forecast. Treats forecast stock based compensation as a cash cost.  Leverage Sensitivity (@ 0.90x Terminal Multiple)Illustrative Discount Rate 8.00% 9.25% 10.50%  2.00x2.503.00  $26.5226.6427.47  $25.1825.3026.22  $23.9324.0425.05  TargetLeverage                  Sensitivity AnalysisImplied Per Share Value (@ 3.00x Debt / Equity) Illustrative Discount Rate   8.00% 9.25% 10.50%  0.80x0.901.00  $24.9727.4729.96  $23.8526.2228.59  $22.8025.0527.30  TerminalMultiple                ($ in millions)  2H 2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  Net Income  $98  $197  $235  $290  $305  After-Tax Interest Savings (Expense) on Paydown / Incremental Debt (1)  (0)  1  3  4  3  (Gains) Losses from Dispositions  (36)  (28)  (29)  (32)  (32)  Depreciation & Impairment Expense  182  403  448  493  546  Finance Leases  14  28  21  17  15  Other Non-Cash Charges (2)  21  57  49  53  37  FFO  $278  $657  $727  $824  $874  Change in Net Working Capital  7  (6)  (8)  (11)  (15)  Cash Flow from Operations  $285  $651  $718  $813  $859  Capital Expenditures, net  (302)  (1,893)  (1,269)  (1,346)  (1,465)  Change in Debt  (240)  1,191  513  522  589  Other Financing Cash Flows  11  51  102  130  130  Dividends Paid (155) -- (64) (120) (112)  Net Change in Cash ($400) -- -- -- --  Leverage after Dividend Payment 6/30/2019A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023EDebt $5,543 $5,304 $6,494 $7,007 $7,529 $8,118Cash 500 100 100 100 100 100Net Debt $5,043 $5,204 $6,394 $6,907 $7,429 $8,018Shareholders' Equity (2) $2,021 $1,964 $2,162 $2,336 $2,510 $2,706Total Debt / Equity 2.7x 2.7x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0xNet Debt / Equity 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0                                  18 
 

     Discounted Dividends Analysis – Lower Growth Sensitivity      For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyAssumptionsDiscounted cash flow analysis based on forecasted dividendsExcess equity capital is distributed annually in the form of a dividend to shareholders based on a target of 2.5x debt / equityAssumes Europa net debt of $5,043 million as of June 30, 2019Assumes any incremental debt is financed through Europa’s existing revolver capacity at a rate of L + 150 bpsAssumes minimum cash of $100 millionMid-period discounting convention applied to dividend streamPrice / Book terminal multiple range applied to terminal Book Equity  Source: Note:  (1)(2)  Company filings, Europa Management.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.729 million as of August 2, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.951 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs (assuming maximum LTIP payout).Calculated relative to Europa Lower Growth Sensitivity forecast. Treats forecast stock based compensation as a cash cost.  Leverage Sensitivity (@ 0.90x Terminal Multiple)Illustrative Discount Rate 8.00% 9.25% 10.50%  2.00x2.503.00  $25.5526.3027.25  $24.2825.1226.19  $23.0924.0125.18  TargetLeverage                  Sensitivity AnalysisImplied Per Share Value (@ 2.50x Debt / Equity) Illustrative Discount Rate   8.00% 9.25% 10.50%  0.80x0.901.00  $24.1426.3028.47  $23.0725.1227.18  $22.0624.0125.97  TerminalMultiple                ($ in millions)  2H 2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  Net Income  $98  $178  $193  $236  $229  After-Tax Interest Savings (Expense) on Paydown / Incremental Debt (1)  1  4  7  9  10  (Gains) Losses from Dispositions  (36)  (28)  (29)  (32)  (32)  Depreciation & Impairment Expense  182  372  393  422  450  Finance Leases  14  28  21  17  15  Other Non-Cash Charges (2)  21  55  46  49  32  FFO  $279  $609  $632  $700  $704  Change in Net Working Capital  7  (5)  (8)  (11)  (15)  Cash Flow from Operations  $286  $604  $624  $690  $689  Capital Expenditures, net  (302)  (730)  (780)  (920)  (604)  Change in Debt  (352)  200  196  257  33  Other Financing Cash Flows  10  29  82  116  107  Dividends Paid (44) (102) (122) (143) (226)  Net Change in Cash ($400) -- -- -- --  Leverage after Dividend Payment 6/30/2019A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023EDebt $5,543 $5,192 $5,391 $5,588 $5,844 $5,877Cash 500 100 100 100 100 100Net Debt $5,043 $5,092 $5,291 $5,488 $5,744 $5,777Shareholders' Equity (2) $2,021 $2,077 $2,157 $2,235 $2,338 $2,351Total Debt / Equity 2.7x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5xNet Debt / Equity 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5                                  19 
 

     Europa Capitalization  Source: Note: (1)  Company filings, Europa Management.All debt shown before issuance costs and discounts.Pro forma for redemption of $500 million senior notes in July 2019.  (2)(3)(4)  Unsecured debt has single trigger change of control provision unless otherwise indicated. Assumes maximum LTIP payout.Assumes $150 million proceeds from incremental revolver draw.    Shares Outstanding  (3)    $2.8 billion of debt with dual trigger change of control provision      Standalone    Pro Forma  ($ in millions)  6/30/2019  Adjustment (1)  6/30/2019  Unrestricted Cash  $500  ($350)  $150  DebtSecured        ECA Financings  $169  --  $169  Bank Financings  1,059  --  1,059  Total Secured Debt  $1,228  --  $1,228  Unsecured (2)        For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyCapitalization    Senior Notes due 2019  $500  ($500)  --  Senior Notes due 2020  300  --  $300  Senior Notes due 2021  500  --  500  Senior Notes due 2022  500  --  500  Senior 5.00% Notes due 2023  500  --  500  Senior 4.40% Notes due 2023  650  --  650  Senior Notes due 2024  500  --  500  Senior Notes due 2026  650  --  650  Unsecured Term Loans  215  --  215  Revolving Credit Facilities  --  $150 (4)  150  Total Unsecured Debt  $4,315  ($350)  $3,965  Total Debt  $5,543  ($350)  $5,193  Net Debt  5,043  --  5,043  Shareholder's Equity  $2,021  --  $2,021  Metrics:        Debt / Equity  2.7x    2.6x  Net Debt / Equity  2.5    2.5    20 
 


           2.0  4.0  6.0  8.0  10.0  12.0  14.0  16.0  18.0x  Jan-14  Jun-14  Dec-14  Jun-15  Dec-15  May-16  Nov-16  May-17  Nov-17  Apr-18  Oct-18  Apr-19  Oct-19  Historical Trading Multiples for Europa and Select Aircraft Lessors  7.7x7.2x  10.3x  Source:  Public filings and presentations, FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.  AER  AL  Europa         Trailing Averages Since Jan. 1, 2014 3-Year 2-Year LTM   Europa  10.7x  9.7x  9.4x  9.1x  AL  10.1  8.6  8.0  6.6   AER 8.3 7.6 7.6 7.1     For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyPrice / NTM EPS(January 1, 2014 – Present)  21